# How many spots on the Billboard Hot 100's top 10 will Drake hold for the week of May 30, 2026

> Exactly 2 songs leads at 17%, runner-up 14% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topbbspotsdra
Updated: 2026-05-03T19:20:53.583Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-30

## Headline

- Leader: Exactly 2 songs at 17%
- Runner-up: Exactly 1 song at 14%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 songs | 17¢ | −4pp | $49 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-2 |
| Exactly 1 song | 14¢ | −1pp | $410 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-1 |
| Exactly 3 songs | 12¢ | +2pp | $49 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-3 |
| Exactly 4 songs | 7¢ | ±0 | $183 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-4 |
| Exactly 5 songs | 6¢ | +1pp | $35 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-5 |
| Exactly 7 songs | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-7 |
| Exactly 6 songs | 5¢ | +1pp | $37 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-6 |
| Exactly 9 songs | 5¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-9 |
| Exactly 8 songs | 4¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-8 |
| Exactly 10 songs | 3¢ | +2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/how-many-spots-on-the-billboard-hot-100s-top-10-wi-kalshi-kxtopbbspotsdra-26may30-10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Exactly 2 songs | Exactly 1 song | Exactly 3 songs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 33 | 24 | 3 |
| 2026-04-26 | 27 | 21 | 13 |
| 2026-05-02 | 19 | 15 | 15 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 14 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Exactly 1 song −5pp 21→16¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Exactly 2 songs −4pp 23→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Exactly 3 songs −3pp 14→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · Exactly 9 songs +3pp 2→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Exactly 9 songs +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates the likelihood that Drake will occupy exactly 2 spots on the Billboard Hot 100 top 10 during the week of May 30, 2026. The current 18% probability reflects uncertainty about Drake's chart performance over the next four weeks, factoring in typical streaming patterns and release schedules. The main drivers are whether Drake releases new music before late May and the competitive landscape among other artists charting simultaneously. The resolution date of May 30, 2026 will definitively settle the outcome when Billboard publishes its official weekly rankings based on that week's streaming and sales data. Prior chart history and upcoming releases in the hip-hop and pop categories will significantly influence whether Drake maintains, gains, or loses top-10 positions by that date.

### Key factors

- Drake's release schedule between now and late May 2026, including whether he drops new singles or album material
- Chart performance of competing artists and the total number of Drake songs charting in the top 10 (current track momentum matters)
- Billboard's methodology for counting songs and any changes to eligibility rules for the May 30 week
- Streaming volume and consumer demand for Drake's catalog during the final week of May relative to other artists
- Historical pattern of Drake's typical top-10 occupancy and whether May 30 falls during or after typical release cycles

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topbbspotsdra
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topbbspotsdra

## License

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