# Will Should I Marry a Murderer

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 12% across 13 contracts — refreshed 5 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topshow
Updated: 2026-05-09T02:05:43.614Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Probability: 12% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Pitt (S2) | 19¢ | — | $742 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-pitt-s2-s2-be-1-on-the-luminate-top-50-tv-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-thepitt22 |
| Invincible (S4) | 8¢ | −35pp | $429 | kalshi | /markets/will-invincible-s4-s4-be-1-on-the-luminate-top-50-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-invinci44 |
| Running Point (S2) | 6¢ | — | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-running-point-s2-s2-be-1-on-the-luminate-top-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-running22 |
| Your Friends & Neighbors (S2) | 6¢ | — | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-your-friends-neighbors-s2-s2-be-1-on-the-lumi-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-yourfri22 |
| The Boys (S5) | 64¢ | — | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-boys-s5-s5-be-1-on-the-luminate-top-50-tv-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-theboys55 |
| Unchosen (S1) | 6¢ | — | $31 | kalshi | /markets/will-unchosen-s1-s1-be-1-on-the-luminate-top-50-tv-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-unchose11 |
| Real American (S1) (S1) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Hulk Hogan: Real American (S1) | 6¢ | — | $16 | kalshi | /markets/will-hulk-hogan-real-american-s1-s1-be-1-on-the-lu-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-hulkhog11 |
| Million Dollar Secret (S2) | 6¢ | — | $14 | kalshi | /markets/will-million-dollar-secret-s2-s2-be-1-on-the-lumin-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-million22 |
| Should I Marry a Murderer? (S1) | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-should-i-marry-a-murderer-s1-be-1-on-the-lumi-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-shouldi1 |
| Running Point (S1) | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-running-point-s1-s1-be-1-on-the-luminate-top-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-running11 |
| Born Again (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Daredevil: Born Again (S2) | 8¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-daredevil-born-again-s2-s2-be-1-on-the-lumina-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-daredev22 |
| Beef (S2) | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beef-s2-s2-be-1-on-the-luminate-top-50-tv-sho-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-beef22 |
| Funny AF with Kevin Hart (S1) (S1) | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-funny-af-with-kevin-hart-s1-s1-be-1-on-the-lu-kalshi-kxtopshow-26may07-funnyaf11 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 5 |
| 2026-05-07 | 23 |
| 2026-05-08 | 27 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Invincible (S4) −35pp 38→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Born Again (S2) (S2) be #1 on the Luminate Top 50 TV shows ranked by hours?: Daredevil: Born Again (S2) +3pp 5→8¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that 'Should I Marry a Murderer?' (Season 1) will rank #1 on Luminate's Top 50 TV shows by hours watched. The 7% probability suggests markets view it as a competitive but unlikely contender against stronger performers like Invincible Season 4. The outcome depends on viewer engagement over the measurement period, with success driven by premiere momentum, audience retention through the season, and how viewership distributes across the five major shows currently tracking. Resolution will occur when Luminate releases its next Top 50 rankings, which would definitively show where the show placed based on actual viewing hours. Markets are pricing in uncertainty about whether a true-crime marriage documentary can outperform established franchises and comedy specials in total hours consumed.

### Key factors

- Season 1 premiere date and initial viewership metrics compared to competing titles
- Total episode count and episode length relative to other shows in the comparison set
- Viewer retention rates week-over-week through the measurement window
- Market share of true-crime documentary format versus scripted and comedy content on the platform
- Timing of Luminate's next Top 50 release and the specific measurement period it covers

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topshow
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topshow

## License

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