# Will drop dead be #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 during the week of May 9, 2026: drop dead

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 24% across 4 contracts — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsong
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:51.360Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-06

## Headline

- Probability: 24% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Choosin' Texas | 71¢ | +5pp | $12K | kalshi | /markets/will-choosin-texas-be-1-on-the-billboard-hot-100-d-kalshi-kxtopsong-26jul04-cho |
| I Knew It, I Knew You | 16¢ | −8pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-i-knew-it-i-knew-you-be-1-on-the-billboard-ho-kalshi-kxtopsong-26jul04-ikn |
| stupid song | 5¢ | +4pp | $94 | kalshi | /markets/will-stupid-song-be-1-on-the-billboard-hot-100-dur-kalshi-kxtopsong-26jul11-stu |
| Choosin' Texas | 5¢ | −71pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-choosin-texas-be-1-on-the-billboard-hot-100-d-kalshi-kxtopsong-26jul11-cho |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | 8 |
| 2026-06-19 | 42 |
| 2026-06-26 | 33 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-26 · Choosin' Texas −71pp 76→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Choosin' Texas +40pp 45→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · I Knew It, I Knew You −40pp 53→13¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Choosin' Texas +37pp 39→76¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Choosin' Texas +33pp 12→45¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the probability that the song 'drop dead' will be the number-one song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week ending May 9, 2026. The 57% probability suggests roughly even odds, reflecting uncertainty about chart performance during that specific week. The main factors driving this level are the song's current momentum and radio/streaming adoption as of late May 2026, balanced against competition from other releases. The resolution will be determined by Billboard's official chart announcement, which publishes weekly rankings based on the preceding week's streaming, radio play, and sales data. Chart position is influenced by sustained listener engagement across platforms, radio station rotation rates, and whether major competing releases arrive during that tracking period.

### Key factors

- Billboard's official chart data for the week of May 9, 2026 will definitively show whether 'drop dead' ranked number-one or did not
- Streaming volume and radio airplay metrics during the tracking week (ending May 8, 2026) will be the primary determinants of chart position
- Release timing and performance of competing songs from major artists during that week could displace 'drop dead' from the top spot
- The song's performance trajectory in the weeks immediately preceding May 9 will indicate momentum and likelihood of maintaining or reaching number-one status
- Related contract prices suggest uncertainty about whether 'Janice STFU' or other competing tracks might hold or claim the top position instead

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsong
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topsong

## License

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