# Will Man I Need be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 5 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsongrunnerupusa
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:08.899Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Babydoll | 16¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-babydoll-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongrunnerupusa-26-bab |
| DtMF | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dtmf-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-2026-kalshi-kxtopsongrunnerupusa-26-dtmf |
| luther (with sza) | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luther-with-sza-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-o-kalshi-kxtopsongrunnerupusa-26-lut |
| Man I Need | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-man-i-need-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-kalshi-kxtopsongrunnerupusa-26-mani |
| Timeless (feat Playboi Carti) | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-timeless-feat-playboi-carti-be-the-2-most-str-kalshi-kxtopsongrunnerupusa-26-tim |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | 9 |
| 2026-05-23 | 3 |
| 2026-06-01 | 15 |
| 2026-06-05 | 14 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-01 · Man I Need +3pp 10→13¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market asks whether 'Man I Need' will rank as the second most-streamed song in Spotify's 2026 USA Wrapped top 10 songs, currently priced at 8% probability. The low probability reflects uncertainty about both the song's streaming trajectory through year-end 2026 and competition from other releases. Key factors include whether the song maintains listener engagement over the remaining eight months, how many new tracks from major artists launch before the annual wrapped announcement, and the historical volatility of streaming rankings. The outcome resolves in early December 2026 when Spotify releases its official Wrapped data for the year, making listener behavior and release timing the primary variables determining whether 'Man I Need' achieves this specific ranking.

### Key factors

- 'Man I Need' must accumulate sufficient streams over eight months to rank #2 specifically in the USA top 10 songs, not #1 or #3
- Major artist releases between now and November 2026 could displace the song from contention if they capture disproportionate listening hours
- The song's streaming velocity and retention pattern relative to other 2026 releases will determine if it accumulates enough total plays to claim the #2 position
- Whether the artist behind 'Man I Need' maintains cultural relevance and playlist positioning throughout the remainder of 2026
- Spotify's streaming calculation methodology and weighting could affect final ranking, though the platform typically uses total stream counts

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsongrunnerupusa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topsongrunnerupusa

## License

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