# Will DtMF be the #1 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 4 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsongspotify
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:07.764Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beauty and a Beat | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beauty-and-a-beat-be-the-1-most-streamed-song-kalshi-kxtopsongspotify-26-bea |
| Babydoll | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-babydoll-be-the-1-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongspotify-26-dom |
| End of Beginning | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-end-of-beginning-be-the-1-most-streamed-song-kalshi-kxtopsongspotify-26-end |
| Stateside + Zara Larsson | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-stateside-be-the-1-most-streamed-song-on-the-kalshi-kxtopsongspotify-26-pin |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |
| 2026-05-25 | 13 |
| 2026-06-01 | 22 |
| 2026-06-07 | 13 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · End of Beginning −3pp 22→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract asks whether DtMF will be the #1 most-streamed song globally according to Spotify's year-end 2026 Wrapped chart, currently priced at 20% probability. The relatively modest probability reflects that achieving the #1 position globally requires sustained streaming dominance across all regions throughout 2026, a high bar given music's fragmented listening patterns and the emergence of new releases during the year. The current 20% estimate appears influenced by competing strong candidates—Babydoll is priced at 37% for the same outcome, suggesting market participants view it as the stronger contender. The market will fully resolve in late November or early December 2026 when Spotify publicly releases its annual Wrapped charts, providing definitive streaming tallies. Until then, DtMF's trajectory depends on maintaining momentum through the second half of 2026 against both established competition and new releases yet to come.

### Key factors

- DtMF's streaming volume and growth trajectory through mid-to-late 2026 compared to competing songs like Babydoll and End of Beginning
- Geographic distribution of DtMF's streams—global #1 requires strong performance across multiple regions, not just USA dominance
- Release timing and promotional activity around competing tracks in the second half of 2026 that could capture listener attention
- Spotify's final streaming count methodology and exact Wrapped release date, which determines the precise measurement window for the 2026 rankings

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsongspotify
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topsongspotify

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.