# Will BIRDS OF A FEATHER be the #2 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 10 contracts — refreshed 41 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsongspotifyrunnerup
Updated: 2026-06-26T05:20:49.555Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Babydoll | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-babydoll-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-bab |
| Beauty and a Beat | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beauty-and-a-beat-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-bea |
| BIRDS OF A FEATHER | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-birds-of-a-feather-be-the-2-most-streamed-son-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-bir |
| Die With A Smile | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-die-with-a-smile-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-die |
| Don’t Say You Love Me | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dont-say-you-love-me-be-the-2-most-streamed-s-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-don |
| End of Beginning | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-end-of-beginning-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-end |
| Manchild | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchild-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-man |
| Ordinary | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ordinary-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-ord |
| Soda Pop | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-soda-pop-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-sod |
| SWIM | 7¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-swim-be-the-2-most-streamed-song-on-the-2026-kalshi-kxtopsongspotifyrunnerup-26-swim |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 11 |
| 2026-06-10 | 7 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether "Birds of a Feather" will rank as the second-most streamed song globally on Spotify's 2026 year-end Wrapped chart when released in early December 2026. The 9% probability reflects skepticism about a specific song holding the #2 position among all global streams over an entire year. For context, top songs typically accumulate billions of streams, and achieving a top-two position requires sustained global appeal across multiple months. The probability would increase if the song continues gaining traction through mid-2026 or if it receives major playlist placement. It would decrease if competing songs from major artists (like Drake, The Weeknd, or Bad Bunny) release chart-dominating tracks. The contract resolves on December 3-4, 2026, when Spotify officially publishes its annual Wrapped data, making streaming performance through November the decisive factor.

### Key factors

- Current cumulative streaming volume of 'Birds of a Feather' relative to songs projected to finish in top positions by year-end
- Historical placement patterns showing whether songs from mid-year releases realistically achieve #2 global positioning by December
- Competitive landscape of major releases expected throughout 2026 from chart-dominant artists
- Whether the song maintains playlist momentum and cross-regional appeal through the final months of 2026
- Spotify's algorithmic promotion patterns and whether 'Birds of a Feather' receives sustained featured placement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsongspotifyrunnerup
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topsongspotifyrunnerup

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.