# Will luther (with sza) be the #3 most streamed Song on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Songs USA chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 7% across 12 contracts — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsongthirdusa
Updated: 2026-06-08T10:20:08.557Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 7% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (12 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APT. | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-apt-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-2026-s-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-apt |
| BIRDS OF A FEATHER | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-birds-of-a-feather-be-the-3-most-streamed-son-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-bir |
| Don’t Say You Love Me | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dont-say-you-love-me-be-the-3-most-streamed-s-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-don |
| DtMF | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dtmf-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-2026-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-dtmf |
| End of Beginning | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-end-of-beginning-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-end |
| The Fate of Ophelia | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-fate-of-ophelia-be-the-3-most-streamed-so-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-fat |
| Golden | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-golden-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-202-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-gol |
| luther (with sza) | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-luther-with-sza-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-o-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-lut |
| Manchild | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-manchild-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-man |
| Ordinary | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ordinary-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-ord |
| Soda Pop | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-soda-pop-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-2-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-sod |
| Your Idol | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-your-idol-be-the-3-most-streamed-song-on-the-kalshi-kxtopsongthirdusa-26-you |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 3 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether 'Luther (with SZA)' will rank as the #3 most streamed song on Spotify's 2026 Wrapped Top 10 Songs chart for the USA when released in late 2026. The 8% probability reflects the difficulty of a single song maintaining extremely high streaming volume through the full year while competing against other major releases. The song's ranking depends on cumulative streams from release through year-end; performance drivers include continued chart presence, cultural relevance, playlist placement, and competition from newer releases. The primary resolution catalyst is Spotify's official 2026 Wrapped release, typically occurring in early December, which will definitively show year-to-date streaming rankings.

### Key factors

- The song must accumulate enough total streams across the full 2026 calendar year to land exactly in the #3 position among all USA songs on that specific year-end chart
- Release timing and date significantly impact final stream totals; earlier 2026 releases have more months to accumulate plays than later releases
- Competition from high-performing tracks by Drake, The Weeknd, Taylor Swift, and other major artists throughout 2026 will determine relative ranking
- Streaming velocity across months matters; songs with front-loaded popularity may not sustain position, while gradual climbers could rank higher
- The exact methodology Spotify uses to calculate 2026 Wrapped rankings (total streams vs. other metrics) directly determines whether specific historical streaming patterns predict this outcome

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/topsongthirdusa
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=topsongthirdusa

## License

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