# Tori Finance FDV above ___ one day after launch — $300M

> $50M leads at 51%, runner-up 48% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.190Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: $50M at 51%
- Runner-up: $100M at 48%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 51¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-50m-polymarket-0x455e2e18101c6695420f5b8b0425121fed500749a5e68835d454937ab1de24a5 |
| $100M | 48¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-100m-polymarket-0x7fa7fbf66935f5a318910d9d34dffd87fdaf5ca83becfcb583b584b0034b0533 |
| $200M | 46¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-200m-polymarket-0x77ac37abf2e3b7648ca1dd937a4a48c69ef313a1739d4b54ef720f7f2acfa2e0 |
| $300M | 27¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-300m-polymarket-0xafc67b1f00c263b0189cbd3506fed054699ba738f62d093ebb9e0d3c229cc2c3 |
| $500M | 25¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-500m-polymarket-0x373d821885ae1394625e8b4208c024b222cbfa80e73b298aeff38ec702b7db02 |
| $1B | 12¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-1b-polymarket-0xdb82bd8e2c2c9790dbf81b6427cdd2c1bf52e1f7b123d55facebbacba926465b |
| $700M | 11¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch-700m-polymarket-0x246b27ddb97155a48e8db7d141f00b2b55b49ca8299e5da502feb04a182adaa1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $50M | $100M | $200M |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | 46 | 52 | 25 |
| 2026-04-25 | 50 | 45 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 51 | 50 | 52 |
| 2026-05-08 | 50 | 50 | 45 |

_25 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · $200M −10pp 53→43¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · $100M −8pp 54→46¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · $100M +4pp 50→54¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · $300M +4pp 27→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · $100M +3pp 47→50¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 55% probability that Tori Finance will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) exceeding $300 million on its first day of trading. The probability reflects mixed signals: moderate confidence in Tori reaching at least this threshold, but meaningful uncertainty about whether the launch valuation will exceed it. The estimate would increase if comparable fintech or DeFi launches recently achieved similar or higher valuations, or if pre-launch demand indicators strengthen. It would decrease if recent launches underwhelmed or if market conditions deteriorate. The main catalyst is the actual launch date and initial trading price discovery, which will definitively establish whether the $300M FDV threshold is crossed. Related markets show lower confidence in significantly higher valuations ($500M, $800M, $1B), suggesting the base case is viewed as more plausible than explosive upside.

### Key factors

- Comparable launch valuations: recent fintech or blockchain launches and their day-one FDV outcomes provide direct precedent for expected valuation ranges
- Pre-launch metrics: user signups, waitlist demand, and institutional interest commitments indicate market appetite heading into launch
- Market conditions at launch date: broader fintech and DeFi sentiment, liquidity availability, and risk appetite will influence trading prices immediately post-launch
- Contract distribution across thresholds: the 55% on $300M versus 44% on $500M and 17% on $800M suggests probability clusters, indicating where trader consensus shifts
- Time decay and information arrival: as launch approaches, new data on funding, partnerships, or competitive positioning will narrow uncertainty bands

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tori-finance-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.