# Will there be more than 175 tornadoes in April

> Above 375 leads at 88%, runner-up 72% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 23 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tornado
Updated: 2026-06-29T02:20:50.733Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above 375 at 88%
- Runner-up: Above 50 at 72%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 375 | 88¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-375-tornadoes-in-june-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jun-375 |
| Above 50 | 72¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-50-tornadoes-in-july-above-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-50 |
| Above 75 | 55¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-75-tornadoes-in-july-above-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-75 |
| Above 100 | 49¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-100-tornadoes-in-july-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-100 |
| Above 150 | 35¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-150-tornadoes-in-july-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-150 |
| Above 125 | 33¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-125-tornadoes-in-july-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-125 |
| Above 175 | 9¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-175-tornadoes-in-july-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-175 |
| Above 400 | 8¢ | −15pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-400-tornadoes-in-june-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jun-400 |
| Above 200 | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-200-tornadoes-in-july-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-200 |
| Above 275 | 5¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-275-tornadoes-in-july-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-275 |
| Above 225 | 5¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-225-tornadoes-in-july-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-225 |
| Above 250 | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-250-tornadoes-in-july-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jul-250 |
| Above 425 | 3¢ | −2pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-425-tornadoes-in-june-abov-kalshi-kxtornado-26jun-425 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 375 | Above 50 | Above 75 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | — | 56 | 41 |
| 2026-06-24 | 61 | 57 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 86 | 61 | 44 |
| 2026-06-26 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-27 | 93 | 68 | 52 |
| 2026-06-28 | 92 | — | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Above 375 +25pp 61→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-28 · Above 400 −15pp 54→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above 150 +15pp 8→23¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · Above 125 +15pp 16→31¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Above 400 +13pp 43→56¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract resolves based on whether April 2026 will record more than 175 tornado events in the United States. The 97% probability reflects historical tornado frequency data and seasonal patterns; April is typically the second-most active tornado month after May, with average counts often exceeding this threshold. The probability would move downward if April weather patterns prove unusually stable or atmospheric conditions fail to support tornado development. Resolution will depend on official preliminary tornado counts released by the Storm Data division of the National Weather Service, typically available within weeks after month-end. The single largest factor determining outcome is spring atmospheric conditions during April—specifically the frequency and intensity of severe weather systems moving through tornado alley.

### Key factors

- Historical April tornado averages in the U.S. typically range from 80–120 events, meaning 175 is well above the median but achievable in active seasons
- Spring 2026 sea-surface temperature patterns and upper-level atmospheric conditions will determine tornado-supporting weather system frequency during April
- The National Weather Service Storm Data database provides the official tornado count; preliminary April data becomes available in early May with possible adjustments through mid-year
- An exceptionally dry or stable atmospheric pattern in April would reduce severe weather system development and lower tornado likelihood
- El Niño or La Niña conditions and the North Atlantic Oscillation phase influence spring severe weather frequency and intensity across the tornado belt

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tornado
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tornado

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.