# Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/toronto-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:29.061Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $687

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 48¢ | +1pp | $298 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-united-states-polymarket-0x26c10c27cde58e2d6214d65ab562d8142d34723b3b6ec3f40836d24f6d22dfc9 |
| Incheon United FC | 29¢ | −4pp | $253 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-inche-polymarket-0x10cbc272a36c8985d46640eaedb6a58c32cd54479bf4fc87e8d45f07774077dd |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC | 43¢ | +1pp | $90 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-daeje-polymarket-0x76a37b690aecd81c24c5bf469243f7175236ac231ad8298c834611ede69b687c |
| O/U 3.5 | 23¢ | −1pp | $29 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x5d58f60bcef71fbea32cd17317002ed65fef80adb99080b2bf49aa94cf71ee3d |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 4¢ | +1pp | $11 | polymarket | /markets/daejeon-hana-citizen-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-polymarket-0x4ce71d662883de795b58a84a72031b1561a1c077297aabf78b6b2e3baf43a7ed |
| Draw (United States vs. Paraguay) | 27¢ | ±0 | $7 | polymarket | /markets/united-states-vs-paraguay-draw-united-states-vs-pa-polymarket-0x3774cdf17e49143a4f6e10812df8b06113731493842fccc52dea045a1744ae61 |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x799b4127a82931bf9daf48211943e47b260b95de63fb22de6bed85cd69a0e88e |
| Fukushima United FC | 36¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-fukushima-unit-polymarket-0x19ecdc51afb427b5b6d277bfec4aa09a62e3060e8eeba72263f639b2485d09ff |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x58a7057d70e71e5d33a2d634f3f5da7546509c59bf8117285f1e3f6ee2f5db3a |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xf48e4bd6e403f37de521156a00891c2cf966681a80ae63e84a411c37c92c939a |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0xa5ce223bf8232c5c2f8d4aae04ac65431b401310234dea268d56354b4bec337e |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x2274e1938e218342db6bad0b9705832113b19ae38704593b94d6c15ae222b6f2 |
| Fujieda MYFC (-1.5) | 33¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-f-polymarket-0xb2f97dd54209caf84e171256fe5d32ab62b45132bd16e70400225d48f8cc27c2 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc65258b729eb812ed035c1f0a9f1f8908d226d1e1f9deb24b21d1857e9536bb8 |
| Kōchi United SC | 34¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-kchi-united-sc-polymarket-0xf55736dc2c89fd4d52f23c9f6006e411a73fa0c71f3b111b4c1e84f43857d314 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fc-imabari-vs-kchi-united-sc-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x58385daf88ca47fa200b7d8f644073a7f5d65f7f79076ce514b59fe11065685c |
| Fujieda MYFC | 49¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-fujieda-myfc-polymarket-0x4bfcf94328459f9b96e5b319c36383116420f7fde0a3adb131bfe62a9e1fc395 |
| Fukushima United FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-f-polymarket-0x37f47e700c3fca9d09d29e917fa33865d1d36e78ab220205158c040a782519c3 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/fujieda-myfc-vs-fukushima-united-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xe281bebf883174950005c88d94614922a1d58445e2fd7f8582f73a1eb3b9c04a |
| Kagoshima United FC (-1.5) | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0x9d9d399d5805b6d04d783b7e23110f9c3a564d25f53a1d111bb05c7ca2ee1252 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 48 |
| 2026-05-01 | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | 39 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −17pp 35→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Fukushima United FC (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Incheon United FC −4pp 32→28¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/toronto-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=toronto-fc-vs-atlanta-united-fc

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.