# Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF

> Inter Miami CF leads at 54%, runner-up 26% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/toronto-fc-vs-inter-miami-cf
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:09.435Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: Inter Miami CF at 54%
- Runner-up: Toronto FC at 26%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $40K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter Miami CF | 54¢ | ±0 | $38K | polymarket | /markets/toronto-fc-vs-inter-miami-cf-inter-miami-cf-polymarket-0x326604b117993529d90c65a425a725be6faf5ae18546d575d4fc0ff037520a88 |
| Toronto FC | 26¢ | −2pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/toronto-fc-vs-inter-miami-cf-toronto-fc-polymarket-0xcbbc20caa92116268806cc3f6a3cf0f3d9cff5b0150f6fb953f741d1b6db4fb7 |
| Draw (Toronto FC vs. Inter Miami CF) | 22¢ | — | $469 | polymarket | /markets/toronto-fc-vs-inter-miami-cf-draw-toronto-fc-vs-in-polymarket-0x07b8a2508b5ccafb6b4815c3c66c03439382c9af824a75b6e19bb9b8969c5e8c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Inter Miami CF | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 49 | 31 |
| 2026-05-07 | 49 | 29 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 27 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Inter Miami CF will defeat Toronto FC in an upcoming match, assessed at 46% likelihood. Inter Miami CF is priced as the favorite, with Toronto FC at 30% and a draw at 22%. The market is pricing in Inter Miami's recent form, roster depth, and home advantage if applicable, balanced against Toronto FC's defensive capability and motivation factors. The match result will be determined on the scheduled game date, providing a clear resolution. Key drivers include team injuries, recent league standings, head-to-head history, weather conditions, and tactical adjustments either side might employ. Contract liquidity remains modest ($8–$6 daily volume), suggesting limited speculative positioning and prices reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than consensus certainty.

### Key factors

- Inter Miami CF's current MLS standings and win-loss record versus Toronto FC's record over the same period
- Injury status of key players on both squads ahead of the match date
- Head-to-head performance in prior season matchups and goal differential in recent fixtures
- Home or away designation and historical performance by each team in that context
- Recent bookmaker or sportsbook odds for the same match, as a cross-check against this market price

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/toronto-fc-vs-inter-miami-cf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=toronto-fc-vs-inter-miami-cf

## License

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