# Toronto FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 33% across 20 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/toronto-fc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:50:28.403Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 33% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 29% / Polymarket 35% — 6pp spread
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose | 6¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-cup-san-jose-kalshi-kxmlscup-26-sj |
| Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1 | 39¢ | −21pp | $321 | kalshi | /markets/will-robelis-despaigne-win-the-junior-dos-santos-v-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may16dosdes-des1 |
| San Jose | 18¢ | −1pp | $238 | kalshi | /markets/will-san-jose-win-the-mls-western-conference-san-j-kalshi-kxmlswest-26-sj |
| Vancouver | 40¢ | — | $113 | kalshi | /markets/san-jose-vs-vancouver-winner-vancouver-kalshi-kxmlsgame-26may09sjvan-van |
| Decision / Draw / No Contest | 26¢ | — | $100 | kalshi | /markets/will-either-competitor-win-the-junior-dos-santos-v-kalshi-kxufcvicround-26may16dosdes-other |
| Ulsan HD FC | 36¢ | +2pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-ulsan-hd-fc-polymarket-0x7f5e73a1e1d8ef935c37b02bfa22007d8fdbfefe92f85d66f2fffcb07a73c050 |
| O/U 1.5 | 73¢ | ±0 | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x958037183bbbe9c19389945a89a0123d13bd75f0cbc4bf48a9c88a4f8669d5e6 |
| O/U 2.5 | 47¢ | −2pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc2ca5022ecefa00d5fdb377dcf1eba34cb1973d86b75b22e40122dd29ca651b6 |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC | 47¢ | +2pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-wuhan-san-z-polymarket-0x13b64b20aec5484de695c175fc83653c6671149e66c58a995f23b5be8c114305 |
| Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) | 29¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-draw-gimcheon-sa-polymarket-0xce05614d03ca739ac993c8183c252089449df98b1a94e557415259d5e12facdf |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $9 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x4612ca5173a5a4fcf85507aeb04a8592bc10dda7e82aa160ccf2a48ee08c3182 |
| O/U 4.5 | 13¢ | −1pp | $8 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x6bf7a43e176741b749890f4c3a5d781f0da3fb7ef5bc2476a1494d53c83df057 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 41¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/which-club-will-cristiano-ronaldo-play-for-next-sa-polymarket-0x86490888b1b25fb7525334e180fa9a4ba24fa0e11571eb4437dd9a53af1b49f9 |
| Bolivar | 57¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gv-club-deportivo-san-jose-de-oruro-vs-bolivar-win-kalshi-kxbolpdivgame-26may03clubol-bol |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/mls-cup-winner-2026-san-jose-earthquakes-polymarket-0x3b08ae92e63b8d3c505a66f5b64979469cdf907894510f11b4cf5b2c7ac3dd27 |
| Totals: Over 4.5 goals scored | 19¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/vancouver-at-san-jose-totals-over-45-goals-scored-kalshi-kxmlstotal-26may09sjvan-4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/wuhan-san-zhen-fc-vs-qingdao-hainiu-fc-more-market-polymarket-0x09142591c531b9321c5237ee59cfad2011a123a0a3bad39becc20ffa835755b9 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x13712fed686d2b8c9fb4a3cfb1024a67967a412094efa5871638bff56c6025b6 |
| O/U 3.5 | 20¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/independiente-santa-fe-vs-sc-corinthians-paulista-polymarket-0x65835d9cb539cf33b6489619365554af29a588a1cee0ddd74e727d6981c3d417 |
| Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) | 11¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-vis-polymarket-0x0dd98db188e5654f0d81714fb96f292841ddf74c965b60074c689f3ffaceb64e |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 4 |
| 2026-04-19 | 3 |
| 2026-04-26 | 13 |
| 2026-05-03 | 34 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-01 · Bolivar +44pp 5→49¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · San Jose Earthquakes +42pp 8→50¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · San Jose Earthquakes −23pp 29→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Robelis Despaigne to win in Round 1 −21pp 42→21¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-28 · San Jose Earthquakes +21pp 8→29¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/toronto-fc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=toronto-fc-vs-san-jose-earthquakes

## License

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