# Toronto Mayoral Election Winner

> Olivia Chow leads at 78%, runner-up 16% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/toronto-mayoral-election-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.673Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-26

## Headline

- Leader: Olivia Chow at 78%
- Runner-up: Brad Bradford at 16%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $507

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia Chow | 78¢ | ±0 | $457 | polymarket | /markets/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-olivia-chow-polymarket-0x1295040186326703b63b9c7d719f8c5bb88ee6fa9672e3924f90ef74ee7b0459 |
| Brad Bradford | 16¢ | ±0 | $50 | polymarket | /markets/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-brad-bradford-polymarket-0xbdfde2fd2472d48a0b126c360eab593687d87208a0f54a89079680af25007e92 |
| Ana Bailão | 4¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/toronto-mayoral-election-winner-ana-bailo-polymarket-0xb7b4ffca1b17b0a23c07d52bb7f65b7331cbcabeec04ff6397ac058708daff40 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Olivia Chow | Brad Bradford | Ana Bailão |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-23 | 75 | 17 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 79 | 15 | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 74 | 22 | 11 |
| 2026-05-01 | 77 | 15 | 5 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 14 | 8 |
| 2026-05-07 | 78 | 18 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 78 | 18 | — |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Brad Bradford +4pp 14→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Ana Bailão −4pp 9→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Ana Bailão +3pp 5→8¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 77% probability indicates market participants assess one candidate as substantially favored to win the Toronto mayoral election, though roughly one-in-four outcomes favor other candidates. The leading position reflects either significant polling advantages, name recognition, fundraising gaps, or incumbent status relative to competitors. Key factors driving this assessment likely include recent public opinion data, campaign infrastructure, and endorsement patterns. The probability could shift materially based on debate performance, scandal disclosure, or unexpected voter mobilization. Resolution occurs on election day when ballots are counted and a winner is officially declared.

### Key factors

- Current polling data or voter preference surveys showing the leader's margin relative to rivals
- Fundraising and campaign spending disparities, which correlate with candidate viability and voter reach
- Endorsement patterns from established political figures, unions, or community organizations
- Debate performance or media coverage shifts that could alter voter perception in the weeks before voting
- Turnout expectations and demographic shifts that may favor or disadvantage the leading candidate

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/toronto-mayoral-election-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=toronto-mayoral-election-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.