# Will Toast Inc. report Above 207 thousand total locations in 2026

> Above 189 thousand leads at 94%, runner-up 87% across 7 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tosta
Updated: 2026-08-10T15:20:48.887Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2028-03-31

## Headline

- Leader: Above 189 thousand at 94%
- Runner-up: Above 192 thousand at 87%
- Outcomes: 7 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (7 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (7)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 189 thousand | 94¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toast-inc-report-above-189-thousand-total-loc-kalshi-kxtosta-28janloc-189000 |
| Above 192 thousand | 87¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toast-inc-report-above-192-thousand-total-loc-kalshi-kxtosta-28janloc-192000 |
| Above 195 thousand | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toast-inc-report-above-195-thousand-total-loc-kalshi-kxtosta-28janloc-195000 |
| Above 198 thousand | 26¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toast-inc-report-above-198-thousand-total-loc-kalshi-kxtosta-28janloc-198000 |
| Above 201 thousand | 13¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toast-inc-report-above-201-thousand-total-loc-kalshi-kxtosta-28janloc-201000 |
| Above 204 thousand | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toast-inc-report-above-204-thousand-total-loc-kalshi-kxtosta-28janloc-204000 |
| Above 207 thousand | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-toast-inc-report-above-207-thousand-total-loc-kalshi-kxtosta-28janloc-207000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 189 thousand | Above 192 thousand | Above 195 thousand |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | — | 84 | 63 |
| 2026-07-26 | — | 84 | 63 |
| 2026-08-03 | 94 | 86 | 68 |
| 2026-08-09 | — | 87 | 72 |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-03 · Above 195 thousand +5pp 63→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-03 · Above 198 thousand −5pp 30→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Above 195 thousand +4pp 68→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-04 · Above 201 thousand −3pp 17→14¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This measures whether Toast Inc., a restaurant software company, will operate or franchise above 207,000 locations by year-end 2026. The 86% probability reflects market confidence in reaching 192,000 locations, but drops sharply for higher thresholds—only 6% odds Toast exceeds 207,000. The market is pricing in steady but constrained growth. Upside movement would depend on accelerated franchise expansion, better-than-expected customer retention, or acquisition-driven scaling. Downside pressure comes from market saturation, integration challenges, or reduced customer demand for Toast's platform. The key uncertainty resolves when Toast reports 2026 year-end location figures, typically in early 2027 earnings reports. Current trading volume concentrates on 195-198k thresholds, suggesting most market participants expect growth in the 192-210k range but view significant upside as unlikely this year.

### Key factors

- Toast's historical location growth rate and franchise velocity through mid-2026 determines feasibility of 207k target; slower adoption would make 207k increasingly improbable
- Customer churn and net new customer acquisition in Toast's core restaurant segments directly affect location count; competitive pressures or product dissatisfaction could constrain growth
- Material acquisitions or franchise partnership announcements would be immediate catalysts affecting probability upward; absence of major deals tilts market lower
- Market saturation in Toast's primary verticals and the company's capital allocation priorities influence expansion aggressiveness
- Toast's 2026 year-end earnings report and audited location count disclosure will fully resolve the contract; timing expected early 2027

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tosta
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tosta

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.