# Will Drake announce a new tour this year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 44% across 20 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tour
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:43.699Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 44% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $20

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KATSEYE | 80¢ | +1pp | $11 | kalshi | /markets/will-katseye-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-katseye-kalshi-kxtour-27-kat |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 46¢ | ±0 | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-sabrina-carpenter-announce-a-new-tour-this-ye-kalshi-kxtour-27-sab |
| The Weeknd | 66¢ | +3pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-weeknd-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-the-kalshi-kxtour-27-wee |
| Nicki Minaj | 62¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicki-minaj-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-nic-kalshi-kxtour-27-nic |
| Rihanna | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-rihanna-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-rihanna-kalshi-kxtour-27-rih |
| Frank Ocean | 7¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-frank-ocean-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-fra-kalshi-kxtour-27-fra |
| Kanye West / Ye | 54¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kanye-west-ye-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-k-kalshi-kxtour-27-kan |
| Adele | 17¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-adele-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-adele-kalshi-kxtour-27-ade |
| Drake | 94¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-drake-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-drake-kalshi-kxtour-27-dra |
| Justin Bieber | 57¢ | −23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-justin-bieber-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-j-kalshi-kxtour-27-jus |
| Beyoncé | 45¢ | +16pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-beyonc-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-beyonc-kalshi-kxtour-27-bey |
| Taylor Swift | 22¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-taylor-swift-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-ta-kalshi-kxtour-27-tay |
| Travis Scott | 64¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-travis-scott-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-tr-kalshi-kxtour-27-tra |
| Kendrick Lamar | 29¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kendrick-lamar-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-kalshi-kxtour-27-ken |
| Bad Bunny | 42¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bad-bunny-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-bad-b-kalshi-kxtour-27-bad |
| SZA | 32¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-sza-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-sza-kalshi-kxtour-27-sza |
| Dua Lipa | 31¢ | +8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dua-lipa-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-dua-li-kalshi-kxtour-27-dua |
| Doja Cat | 57¢ | +10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-doja-cat-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-doja-c-kalshi-kxtour-27-doj |
| Eminem | 22¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-eminem-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-eminem-kalshi-kxtour-27-emi |
| Jay-Z | 24¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jay-z-announce-a-new-tour-this-year-jay-z-kalshi-kxtour-27-jay |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 47 |
| 2026-04-25 | 47 |
| 2026-05-02 | 38 |
| 2026-05-09 | 47 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Justin Bieber −23pp 80→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · Beyoncé +16pp 31→47¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · The Weeknd +7pp 55→62¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · KATSEYE −5pp 84→79¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · The Weeknd +3pp 62→65¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects a moderate likelihood that Drake will publicly announce a new tour sometime in 2026. At 45%, the market is pricing roughly even odds relative to uncertainty. Drake's touring history shows regular intervals between major announcements, typically spanning several years. The probability hinges on whether he releases new album material this year—tour announcements traditionally follow new music releases or creative cycles. Key factors influencing this outcome include whether Drake drops a new album, his recent public activity and health status, and typical industry timing for artist announcements. A major catalog release or festival headlining confirmation would be the most direct catalyst for resolving this upward or downward. Compared to peer artists on similar markets, Drake's 45% sits between Beyoncé (47%) and Bad Bunny (42%), suggesting moderate but not exceptional tour announcement likelihood for 2026.

### Key factors

- Drake's last major tour (Certified Lover Boy tour) ended in 2022; typical gap between his tour announcements is 2-4 years
- New album release or surprise project would substantially increase announcement probability; no confirmed 2026 album has been announced as of May
- Drake's public appearances and social media activity level in recent months suggest baseline career momentum but lack of imminent tour signals
- Comparison to peer artists shows varied probabilities (Bieber 80%, Beyoncé 47%, Bad Bunny 42%), indicating touring patterns differ significantly by artist
- Festival headlining slots or leaked tour dates would provide early indication; May-June announcements are typical timing for major artist fall/winter tours

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tour
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tour

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.