# Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba before May 1, 2026

> Before Jan 1, 2027 leads at 53%, runner-up 17% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tradedealcuba
Updated: 2026-06-25T23:20:50.902Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 53%
- Runner-up: Before Aug 1, 2026 at 17%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $50

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 53¢ | +2pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-announce-a-trade-deal-with-cuba-before-kalshi-kxtradedealcuba-27-b270101 |
| Before Aug 1, 2026 | 17¢ | −1pp | $45 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-announce-a-trade-deal-with-cuba-before-kalshi-kxtradedealcuba-27-b260801 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2027 | Before Aug 1, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 69 | 43 |
| 2026-06-11 | 57 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | 16 |
| 2026-06-19 | 53 | 24 |
| 2026-06-24 | 53 | 18 |
| 2026-06-25 | 55 | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −3pp 27→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · Before Aug 1, 2026 −3pp 22→19¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Before Jan 1, 2027 +3pp 50→53¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question asks whether Trump will announce a trade deal specifically with Cuba before May 1, 2026—a deadline that has already passed as of today. The 52% probability reflects market belief that such an announcement may have occurred or is being evaluated as having occurred. Market activity shows traders assign lower probabilities to Cuba deals compared to other potential trade partners like the EU, and recent contract pricing suggests broader trade deal announcements are expected before June 2026. The outcome depends on how "announce" is defined, whether any Trump administration statements regarding Cuba trade have been formally made, and the interpretation of existing agreements or negotiations.

### Key factors

- Whether a formal Trump administration announcement about Cuba trade occurred between the question start date and May 1, 2026
- How market participants define 'announce' — whether informal statements, press releases, or formal agreements qualify
- Comparison to pricing on other potential trade deals (EU at 3¢, general trade deals before June 2026 at 33¢) suggesting Cuba is seen as a lower-probability target
- Current geopolitical relationship between the Trump administration and Cuba, which historically has been contentious
- Clarification from contract issuers on whether any announcements have been made and how they are classified for resolution purposes

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tradedealcuba
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tradedealcuba
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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