# Will US trade deficit for 2026 be between 95‎ billion and 104.9‎ billion

> Above 170‎ billion leads at 89%, runner-up 6% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tradedeficit
Updated: 2026-07-09T20:20:49.800Z
Category: general · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-02-28

## Headline

- Leader: Above 170‎ billion at 89%
- Runner-up: 119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion at 6%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 170‎ billion | 89¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-trade-deficit-for-2026-be-above-170-billio-kalshi-kxtradedeficit-27feb28-t170 |
| 119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion | 6¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-trade-deficit-for-2026-be-between-1196-bil-kalshi-kxtradedeficit-27feb28-b119.75 |
| 65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-trade-deficit-for-2026-be-between-65-billi-kalshi-kxtradedeficit-27feb28-b69.95 |
| 95‎ billion to 104.9‎ billion | 5¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-us-trade-deficit-for-2026-be-between-95-billi-kalshi-kxtradedeficit-27feb28-b99.95 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 170‎ billion | 119.6‎ billion to 119.9‎ billion | 65‎ billion to 74.9‎ billion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-07-02 | 89 | — | 5 |
| 2026-07-03 | — | 6 | — |
| 2026-07-09 | 89 | — | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the US trade deficit will exceed $170 billion in 2026, based on current trading patterns and economic conditions. The high price suggests traders believe the deficit is more likely to be larger rather than smaller or moderate. Two main factors are driving this outlook: continued consumer demand for imports relative to export growth, and the trajectory of the dollar's exchange rate, which affects the competitiveness of US goods abroad. The resolution will depend on final 2026 trade data released by the Census Bureau in early 2027, but monthly trade reports throughout the year will provide early signals about whether the deficit is tracking toward larger or smaller annual totals. Exchange rate movements, global demand conditions, and trade policy changes over the remaining months of 2026 represent the key uncertainties that could shift this probability meaningfully.

### Key factors

- Monthly trade deficits through December 2026 will be published by the Census Bureau, providing progressive clarity on the annual deficit trajectory
- The US-China trade relationship and any tariff adjustments in 2026 directly affect import volumes and pricing
- The strength of the US dollar relative to major trading partners influences export competitiveness and import costs
- Consumer spending patterns and domestic demand relative to historical averages will determine import volumes
- Global economic growth rates in key US trading partners affect demand for American exports

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tradedeficit
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tradedeficit
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.