# Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Syria

> Uganda leads at 50%, runner-up 25% across 11 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 56 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/traveldowngrade
Updated: 2026-06-08T02:20:08.212Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Uganda at 50%
- Runner-up: Democratic Republic of the Congo at 25%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $8

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uganda | 50¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-uga |
| Democratic Republic of the Congo | 25¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-drc |
| Lebanon | 10¢ | +3pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-leb |
| Ukraine | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-ukr |
| Russia | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-rus |
| Syria | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-syr |
| Iran | 5¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-ira |
| Burma (Myanmar) | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-mya |
| Haiti | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-hai |
| South Sudan | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-ssud |
| Iraq | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-irq |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Uganda | Democratic Republic of the Congo | Lebanon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | — | — | 7 |
| 2026-05-22 | 55 | 30 | 4 |
| 2026-05-23 | 53 | 28 | — |
| 2026-05-25 | 52 | — | — |
| 2026-05-27 | — | 27 | 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | 55 | 27 | 9 |
| 2026-06-03 | 50 | 27 | 6 |
| 2026-06-04 | — | 26 | 9 |
| 2026-06-06 | — | — | 10 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · Uganda −5pp 55→50¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-01 · Lebanon +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Lebanon −3pp 9→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-04 · Lebanon +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Lebanon +3pp 7→10¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that the U.S. State Department will downgrade Syria's travel warning to level 3 or lower by January 2027, currently priced at 11%. Syria has maintained a level 4 warning (do not travel) since 2011 due to ongoing conflict and instability. The low probability reflects the significant security challenges that would need to resolve for such a downgrade. Key drivers include the pace of Syrian political stabilization, international recognition of any new government, and U.S. diplomatic reassessment priorities. The resolution depends on State Department official policy changes, which typically follow major developments in Syrian security conditions or political transition. Upcoming indicators include any peace negotiations, humanitarian situation improvements, or shifts in regional dynamics that might prompt the department to reconsider its advisory stance.

### Key factors

- Syria's current level 4 travel warning has remained in place since 2011; a downgrade would require sustained security improvements verified by U.S. intelligence and diplomatic assessments
- Recent Syrian political developments and international recognition status; the degree to which Syrian institutions gain international legitimacy affects U.S. willingness to revise travel guidance
- Comparative regional travel advisory trends; U.S. policy on similar countries experiencing post-conflict transitions may influence Syria assessment methodology
- State Department review cycles and diplomatic priorities; travel warnings are typically updated in response to verified security changes rather than on fixed schedules
- Economic and humanitarian indicators in Syria; reconstruction progress and normalization of civil institutions are prerequisites for meaningful advisory downgrade consideration

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/traveldowngrade
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=traveldowngrade

## License

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