# Will Kumar Ferguson be a Groomsman for the wedding of Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 74% across 5 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/traviskelcewedding
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.575Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 74% (liquidity-weighted across 5 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-patrick-mahomes-be-a-groomsman-for-the-weddin-kalshi-kxtraviskelcewedding-30jan01-pat |
| Jason Kelce | 86¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-kelce-be-a-groomsman-for-the-wedding-of-kalshi-kxtraviskelcewedding-30jan01-jas |
| Austin Swift | 85¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-austin-swift-be-a-groomsman-for-the-wedding-o-kalshi-kxtraviskelcewedding-30jan01-aus |
| Aric Jones | 57¢ | +30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-aric-jones-be-a-groomsman-for-the-wedding-of-kalshi-kxtraviskelcewedding-30jan01-ari |
| Kumar Ferguson | 51¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kumar-ferguson-be-a-groomsman-for-the-wedding-kalshi-kxtraviskelcewedding-30jan01-kum |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 57 |
| 2026-04-25 | 92 |
| 2026-05-02 | 74 |
| 2026-05-08 | 85 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Aric Jones +30pp 57→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Patrick Mahomes −22pp 90→68¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Patrick Mahomes +18pp 68→86¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Kumar Ferguson −6pp 54→48¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 76% chance that Kumar Ferguson will be selected as a groomsman if Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift marry. The high probability reflects widespread assumptions about their relationship trajectory and Ferguson's likely place in Kelce's close circle, though it remains contingent on the couple actually getting engaged and married. Key drivers include whether their relationship reaches that stage and whether Ferguson maintains his current position within Kelce's inner social circle. The outcome becomes determinable only if and when a wedding occurs, meaning the resolution timeline remains uncertain. Market participants are pricing in both the relationship progressing to marriage and Ferguson's inclusion in the wedding party as more likely than not.

### Key factors

- Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift's relationship status and trajectory toward marriage
- Kumar Ferguson's documented proximity to Travis Kelce and current standing in his social circle
- Whether a wedding between Kelce and Swift actually occurs and reaches the planning stage
- Historical patterns of groomsman selection in high-profile athlete weddings and typical party sizes
- Any public statements or social media indicators about their relationship timeline or marriage intentions

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/traviskelcewedding
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=traviskelcewedding

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.