# Türkiye vs. Paraguay

> Türkiye leads at 52%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trkiye-vs-paraguay
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:23.981Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-20

## Headline

- Leader: Türkiye at 52%
- Runner-up: Draw (Türkiye vs. Paraguay) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trkiye-vs-paraguay-trkiye-polymarket-0x7bed81b0bd1cbe7cae0ad49fcf2d9e068d1ea2da49a36e638712daa55712a184 |
| Draw (Türkiye vs. Paraguay) | 30¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trkiye-vs-paraguay-draw-trkiye-vs-paraguay-polymarket-0xb1a0254ee2dfe4fc6bb05e521cd068d463245f3763cac6ed3c464d6499a8cc07 |
| Paraguay | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trkiye-vs-paraguay-paraguay-polymarket-0x4a2085d9d7302a081b64016124cf1981a5bcb1118392c9d645f1abb57ea14d65 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Türkiye | Draw (Türkiye vs. Paraguay) | Paraguay |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 49 | 30 | 27 |
| 2026-05-02 | 49 | 31 | 27 |
| 2026-05-09 | 53 | 32 | 27 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Türkiye +5pp 49→54¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 31% probability indicates market participants assess Türkiye as having roughly a one-in-three chance of winning this matchup. The market reflects uncertainty between two competitive teams, with the leading outcome priced notably below even odds. Key drivers include recent team form, head-to-head historical records, and player availability closer to the event date. The probability will likely shift as the match date approaches and more information emerges about team lineups, injuries, and any pre-match developments. Current trading volume is moderate, suggesting some active interest but not consensus certainty. Resolution occurs at the final whistle when the match concludes and the winner is determined.

### Key factors

- Türkiye priced at 31% against Paraguay as winner, with Paraguay's probability at 27% and draw at 27%, indicating three-way competitive balance rather than clear favorite
- Top contract volume concentrates on US vs. Paraguay (49¢, $298 24h vol), suggesting this may be the actual scheduled matchup rather than Türkiye vs. Paraguay
- Polymarket data shows only 2 contracts explicitly for Türkiye vs. Paraguay outcome, indicating lower liquidity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads
- Historical performance records and recent form between Türkiye and Paraguay would be primary technical factors differentiating the 31% assessment from alternatives
- Match resolution requires completion of the scheduled fixture; any postponement, cancellation, or official result announcement would immediately settle the contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trkiye-vs-paraguay
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trkiye-vs-paraguay

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.