# Türkiye vs. United States

> Türkiye leads at 53%, runner-up 33% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trkiye-vs-united-states
Updated: 2026-05-09T06:35:25.364Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-26

## Headline

- Leader: Türkiye at 53%
- Runner-up: Draw (Türkiye vs. United States) at 33%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $14

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 53¢ | ±0 | $14 | polymarket | /markets/trkiye-vs-united-states-trkiye-polymarket-0x81cef42df3d25aecf0bf7e96c344202e86f447f2f3ba2e4b8eb59f4680efeb22 |
| Draw (Türkiye vs. United States) | 33¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trkiye-vs-united-states-draw-trkiye-vs-united-stat-polymarket-0xdc34b1a1507fb269c41fb4750880a7774d396f00b76e95c5746c9fe454e6085c |
| United States | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trkiye-vs-united-states-united-states-polymarket-0x32552863fe8014da2613037970661f0d49f415c86a88cb3d65af7a43395bc4ad |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Türkiye | Draw (Türkiye vs. United States) | United States |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 49 | 37 | 36 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | — | 34 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 33 | 33 |
| 2026-05-07 | 53 | 33 | 33 |
| 2026-05-08 | 54 | 33 | 32 |
| 2026-05-09 | 54 | 32 | 32 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Türkiye +4pp 49→53¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Draw (Türkiye vs. United States) −4pp 37→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 35% probability indicates that market participants estimate a roughly one-in-three chance of a Turkey-United States outcome occurring by a specified resolution date. However, the contract details listed (Spirit Airlines stakes, Iran recognition, Greenland acquisition, TSMC investment, and Palantir positions) suggest fragmentation across multiple unrelated U.S. policy questions rather than a direct bilateral comparison. The current pricing reflects uncertainty around U.S. government intervention in corporate investments and diplomatic recognition decisions. Key drivers include shifts in U.S. foreign policy priorities, corporate investment cycles, and geopolitical developments affecting Iran and Arctic interests. Without a unified resolution criterion, the probability's interpretation depends heavily on which underlying contract is considered the primary benchmark. Market participants appear to be pricing in moderate-to-low likelihood of concrete U.S. government action on these fronts before 2027-2029.

### Key factors

- The Greenland acquisition contract (34¢) prices the highest single outcome, suggesting it may be the dominant price driver within this market cluster
- Combined trading volume across these contracts exceeds $64,000 in 24-hour activity, indicating active disagreement on probability levels
- U.S. corporate investment decisions (Spirit, Palantir, TSMC) typically depend on market conditions and regulatory approval timelines rather than bilateral diplomacy
- The divergence between contract prices (7¢ to 34¢) reflects substantial uncertainty about which policy outcome is most likely before the respective deadlines
- Iranian diplomatic recognition and Greenland acquisition both depend on executive branch decisions with no scheduled vote or announcement date currently set

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trkiye-vs-united-states
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trkiye-vs-united-states

## License

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