# Will there be more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026

> Above 10 leads at 47%, runner-up 37% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tropstorm
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.364Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-02

## Headline

- Leader: Above 10 at 47%
- Runner-up: Above 12 at 37%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $51

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 10 | 47¢ | −3pp | $51 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-10-atlantic-hurricanes-in-kalshi-kxtropstorm-26dec01-t10 |
| Above 12 | 37¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-12-atlantic-hurricanes-in-kalshi-kxtropstorm-26dec01-t12 |
| Above 14 | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-14-atlantic-hurricanes-in-kalshi-kxtropstorm-26dec01-t14 |
| Above 16 | 14¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-16-atlantic-hurricanes-in-kalshi-kxtropstorm-26dec01-t16 |
| Above 18 | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-18-atlantic-hurricanes-in-kalshi-kxtropstorm-26dec01-t18 |
| Above 20 | 6¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-20-atlantic-hurricanes-in-kalshi-kxtropstorm-26dec01-t20 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 10 | Above 12 | Above 14 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 51 | 26 | 26 |
| 2026-08-10 | 45 | 28 | 19 |
| 2026-08-17 | 45 | 24 | 20 |
| 2026-08-21 | 38 | 22 | 18 |
| 2026-08-24 | 40 | 37 | — |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-17 · Above 10 −16pp 61→45¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-24 · Above 12 +12pp 25→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-17 · Above 12 −10pp 34→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-21 · Above 16 +5pp 4→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 10 −4pp 44→40¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 22% probability reflects traders' assessment that 2026 will see more than 12 Atlantic hurricanes, with the leading contract at 42% suggesting most traders expect 10–12 hurricanes. Atlantic hurricane frequency depends on sea-surface temperatures, atmospheric wind shear, and other climate conditions that typically peak in late summer and autumn. The 2026 season will resolve through the National Hurricane Center's official count, recorded as storms reach hurricane strength. Current pricing suggests traders see a roughly one-in-five chance of exceeding the 12-hurricane threshold, compared to historical averages. The resolution date arrives in late November 2026 when the official Atlantic hurricane season ends, though most uncertainty will narrow significantly by October as the peak months conclude and actual storm counts become clearer.

### Key factors

- Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic basin through September–October 2026 will be a primary driver; warmer conditions typically favor more hurricane formation
- Atmospheric wind shear patterns during peak season months (August–October) directly suppress or enable hurricane development and intensification
- The official count from the National Hurricane Center provides the only authoritative resolution; storms must reach sustained winds of 74 mph to be classified as hurricanes
- Historical Atlantic hurricane frequency averages 7–8 per season, making 12+ storms a notably above-average outcome reflected in the lower probability
- As of late August 2026, two months of the peak season remain, allowing significant revision to seasonal forecasts as actual storms form and meteorological conditions evolve

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/tropstorm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=tropstorm

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.