# Will the Truflation EV Commodity Index on Apr 30, 2026 be above 1155.42

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 45% across 15 contracts — refreshed 7 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/truev
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:56.086Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 45% (liquidity-weighted across 15 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (15 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35K

## Bound contracts (15)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 60 | 6¢ | −2pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-60-transit-calls-through-t-kalshi-kxhormuzweekly-26may03-t60 |
| Above 3.6% | 65¢ | ±0 | $9K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-36-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t3.6 |
| Above 50 | 15¢ | −13pp | $8K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-50-transit-calls-through-t-kalshi-kxhormuzweekly-26may03-t50 |
| Above 40 | 61¢ | −6pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-40-transit-calls-through-t-kalshi-kxhormuzweekly-26may03-t40 |
| Above 30 | 92¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-there-be-more-than-30-transit-calls-through-t-kalshi-kxhormuzweekly-26may03-t30 |
| Above 4.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-rate-of-cpi-inflation-be-above-40-for-the-kalshi-kxcpiyoy-26apr-t4.0 |
| Above 4.4% | 37¢ | ±0 | $20 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t4.4 |
| Above 4.0% | 65¢ | −22pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t4.0 |
| Above 3.4% | 88¢ | −25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t3.4 |
| Above 4.2% | 53¢ | +24pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t4.2 |
| Above 3.6% | 78¢ | −25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t3.6 |
| Above 4.8% | 9¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t4.8 |
| Above 4.6% | 23¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t4.6 |
| Above 5.0% | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t5.0 |
| Above 3.8% | 74¢ | −25pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-united-states-producer-price-index-for-fi-kalshi-kxusppiyoy-26may13-t3.8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 20 |
| 2026-04-19 | 30 |
| 2026-04-26 | 40 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Above 3.4% +31pp 58→89¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Above 4.2% −26pp 56→30¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Above 3.4% −25pp 89→64¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Above 3.6% −25pp 80→55¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-01 · Above 3.8% −25pp 76→51¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/truev
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=truev

## License

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