# Will Trump run in 2028?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 11% across 8 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-2028
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:10.519Z
Category: politics · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2028-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 11% (liquidity-weighted across 8 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 12% / Polymarket 3% — 9pp spread
- 24h volume: $975

## Bound contracts (8)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3¢ | −1pp | $969 | polymarket | /markets/republican-presidential-nominee-2028-donald-trump-polymarket-0x4a9d58d4da874e26708f5bdb014eb07a06aeebb927068d169d43831595386557 |
| Before 2028 | 7¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-a-trump-family-member-the-2028-republican-pre-kalshi-kxtrumppres-28 |
| Before Election Day | 20¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-announce-a-run-for-president-of-kalshi-kxtrumprun-28nov07 |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-djtjr |
| JD Vance and Donald Trump | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jd-vance-and-donald-trump-be-the-2028-republi-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-jvandjt |
| Donald J. Trump | 11¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-djt |
| Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-jr-and-marco-rubio-be-the-2028-r-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-dtjrmrub |
| Before 2028 | 15¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-announce-a-run-for-president-of-kalshi-kxtrumprun-28jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 17 |
| 2026-05-25 | 12 |
| 2026-06-01 | 22 |
| 2026-06-07 | 13 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

There is currently no direct prediction market contract for a Donald Trump 2028 presidential candidacy. Current market focus for the 2028 election cycle is centered on Democratic primary contenders, where Gavin Newsom is currently seen as the most likely candidate to declare first, with a 29% market-implied probability.

### Key factors

- Gavin Newsom 29% declaration probability
- Kamala Harris 21% declaration probability
- Focus on 2028 primary declaration timelines
- Absence of direct Trump 2028 contract

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-2028
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-2028
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.