# Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-acquire-greenland
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:38.294Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | 6¢ | ±0 | $12K | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-acquire-greenland-before-2027-polymarket-0xd595eb9b81885ff018738300c79047e3ec89e87294424f57a29a7fa9162bf116 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 8 |
| 2026-04-24 | 7 |
| 2026-05-01 | 7 |
| 2026-05-06 | 7 |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract prices the probability that Donald Trump will acquire Greenland before the end of 2026 at 7%. The 7% probability reflects the substantial legal, diplomatic, and practical barriers to U.S. acquisition of Danish territory, combined with Trump's publicly expressed interest in the strategic Arctic location during his first term. The probability could shift based on changes in U.S.-Denmark relations, explicit policy announcements from the Trump administration, or negotiations with Denmark's government. A related Kalshi contract pricing U.S. acquisition of any Greenland portion by January 2029 at 34% suggests markets view a longer timeframe as more plausible. The most significant near-term catalyst would be direct statements from Trump officials regarding acquisition intentions or diplomatic talks with Denmark. Absent concrete negotiation announcements, the short timeframe makes formal acquisition extremely unlikely.

### Key factors

- Greenland is sovereign Danish territory with no active independence movement seeking U.S. annexation, creating a structural barrier to acquisition
- Trump has publicly discussed acquiring Greenland but made no formal acquisition proposal or initiated official negotiations with Denmark
- The 2026 deadline provides minimal time for the complex legal, constitutional, and diplomatic processes required for territorial transfer
- A longer-dated contract (through January 2029) trades at 34%, suggesting markets see acquisition as more plausible with extended timeframe
- No scheduled diplomatic events or policy announcements from the Trump administration regarding Greenland acquisition have been publicly confirmed

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-acquire-greenland
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-acquire-greenland
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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