# Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 36% across 13 contracts — refreshed 15 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-announces-military-operations-against-iran
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.144Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Probability: 36% (liquidity-weighted across 13 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 40% / Polymarket 33% — 7pp spread
- 24h volume: $125K

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 39¢ | −5pp | $63K | polymarket | /markets/us-military-action-against-cuba-by-december-31-polymarket-0x3de0f3d7d7efb40cde68e814d40a0b232832083653c8e78260eb999baa967de0 |
| June 30 | 25¢ | ±0 | $48K | polymarket | /markets/israel-military-action-against-yemen-by-june-30-polymarket-0x3fe18d2b6303ee3a7e406aab679dbc0b0f7504dc6b477a31c69c6ffb04e9e11c |
| Donald Trump | 82¢ | +4pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/who-will-attend-the-nato-summit-donald-trump-polymarket-0x71ee9c148f0e2b386ba959aca5954c5e6c428695bf1a5fca0af9194f40487758 |
| Yes | 81¢ | −3pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-attend-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-kalshi-kxtrumpattend |
| Before his term ends | 18¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-be-impeached-and-removed-from-office-be-kalshi-kxtrumpremove |
| June 30 | 19¢ | −1pp | $869 | polymarket | /markets/israel-military-action-against-damascus-by-june-30-polymarket-0xeb4beaefa070c6ccfef90eb088852246c9e965b2672a83bc6f4c36ae347817f4 |
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | 7¢ | −1pp | $157 | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-be-impeached-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-0x4c8ceef9b9c0a27b6b4efa7c398ece4a5eeda76502f722de398c232abefe2ede |
| Before 2029 | 27¢ | +1pp | $95 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-25th-amendment-be-used-during-trumps-pres-kalshi-kxamend25-29 |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? | 14¢ | −2pp | $34 | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-pardon-ghislaine-maxwell-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-0x0dc45815251ab7d5c3cbde5d7eee5bc96eac3d924c0a4c4f10175049e068fe20 |
| Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? | 66¢ | −1pp | $13 | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-be-impeached-before-his-term-ends-polymarket-0x553a941e8a11cac22eb746b6bbea0530695ee3e1b0693d80433d7b943c91cab7 |
| Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027? | 13¢ | ±0 | $13 | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-endorse-jd-vance-for-president-before-2-polymarket-0x9c414cb64000dc7645b2bba8d7586746f3ddb1cfd1b564769188b81cd63ad667 |
| Not nine justices | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-supreme-court-look-like-at-the-end-o-kalshi-kxscotuspower-29-29jan20-r0-0 |
| 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals | 71¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-supreme-court-look-like-at-the-end-o-kalshi-kxscotuspower-29-29jan20-r6-3 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 45 |
| 2026-05-25 | 46 |
| 2026-06-01 | 36 |
| 2026-06-07 | 41 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · Donald Trump +11pp 75→86¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · June 30 +6pp 12→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-02 · Donald Trump +6pp 69→75¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? −6pp 66→60¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · December 31 −5pp 43→38¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-announces-military-operations-against-iran
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-announces-military-operations-against-iran
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

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