# Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...

> June 30 leads at 73%, runner-up 45% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.110Z
Category: general · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: June 30 at 73%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 45%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $166K

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 73¢ | +1pp | $17K | polymarket | /markets/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by-ju-polymarket-0x4d0c4865bdecc5f7971dbab47bb6c069d93909dec75bdff52fb766ae6094a6d6 |
| May 31 | 45¢ | +2pp | $49K | polymarket | /markets/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by-ma-polymarket-0x8b369e10358094a99ffe7f85a81a8e8ca68c611eee0fe63a2efa790ad045bcd6 |
| May 22 | 37¢ | +3pp | $23K | polymarket | /markets/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by-ma-polymarket-0x22014d44b787385b7baddb2b9d56cdcf5904fd7783b83c28403962dd71e51a51 |
| May 15 | 22¢ | +2pp | $77K | polymarket | /markets/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted-by-ma-polymarket-0x36f665053a7ca5c102f2db15cfc49b1b9f38fa820a5f2bb4bde87bf9fbd9a2ab |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | June 30 | May 31 | May 22 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 72 | 49 | 37 |
| 2026-05-07 | 73 | 50 | 40 |
| 2026-05-08 | — | 41 | 30 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 43 | 33 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · May 22 −10pp 40→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · May 31 −9pp 50→41¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · May 15 −8pp 29→21¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · May 22 +3pp 37→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-09 · May 22 +3pp 30→33¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-announces-us-blockade-of-hormuz-lifted
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.