# Trump ballroom project unblocked by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 28% across 1 contract — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-ballroom-project-unblocked
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.469Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Probability: 28% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trump-ballroom-project-unblocked-by-may-31-polymarket-0x9c88a9e2f785a32cf0916946dcb47fffe4d9a54c648194f7a5fddabca9111ea7 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 |
| 2026-05-08 | 35 |

_10 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · May 31 +14pp 35→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · May 31 −13pp 49→36¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction estimates a 50% probability that a Trump ballroom project will be unblocked by a specified date. The outcome depends primarily on regulatory decisions, zoning approvals, or legal challenges that could either facilitate or prevent the project's advancement. The key factor that would resolve uncertainty is any official announcement from relevant authorities—whether a permit is granted, a lawsuit is dismissed, or a regulatory barrier is removed—which would definitively answer whether the project has been unblocked by the deadline. Market pricing at 50% suggests participants view obstacles and enabling factors as roughly balanced, with no clear consensus on which direction the project will move.

### Key factors

- Official permit approval or regulatory clearance status from relevant local or state authorities
- Active litigation or legal challenges currently blocking the project and their resolution timeline
- Changes in zoning regulations or land-use designations affecting the property
- Political shifts or changes in administration positions that could influence regulatory treatment
- Public statements or formal announcements from Trump organization representatives about project status

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-ballroom-project-unblocked
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-ballroom-project-unblocked
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.