# Will Trump declare war on Iran by...

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 15% across 11 contracts — refreshed 27 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-declare-war-iran
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.166Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: iran
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 15% (liquidity-weighted across 11 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 13% / Polymarket 15% — 2pp spread
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3¢ | ±0 | $5K | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-talk-to-mojtaba-khamenei-by-june-30-polymarket-0xeeb71597cd6d814eaecc93acebf5aed5122f6e20bc1d2ae5c0a23419d9481683 |
| December 31 | 6¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/will-the-us-officially-declare-war-on-iran-by-dece-polymarket-0x3285179b99df57b0390e480f8e69d340e5fa38496b263225df90ef389e2958f4 |
| December 31 | 11¢ | −2pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/will-reza-pahlavi-enter-iran-by-december-31-polymarket-0x2f224fca80a6a6b3a2a200406473fc8b33da6bcf5af83dc3fe9021a541c0519d |
| Howard Lutnick | 43¢ | +1pp | $215 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027-ho-polymarket-0x6eb86679303704bfc4dc014b21914063124bdd26702a77f5bc1d6d1aa6178483 |
| June 30 | 7¢ | −6pp | $200 | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-meet-with-delcy-rodrguez-by-june-30-polymarket-0x92643b0e0982d56d25338d6004bbac58997959802f8f00c211440d1c7e4575f6 |
| December 31 | 7¢ | −1pp | $80 | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-visit-greenland-by-december-31-polymarket-0x840fe2606472a13ee62e3009a360af8be2576cd1d9dbcda8749e89eed5d02a98 |
| December 31, 2026 | 35¢ | −3pp | $30 | polymarket | /markets/will-openai-launch-a-consumer-hardware-product-by-polymarket-0xf53d2cf86bf4ea3c6a0bfb739cc0dded28001dde6eee5f90b8bb6716ce33571a |
| June 30 | 17¢ | −12pp | $16 | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-mobile-release-a-phone-by-june-30-polymarket-0x873debbeb6edb7d590c7b661e7bf288dff69306af7e01b02bdfe7d747ed544c2 |
| Iran | 5¢ | +1pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-us-state-department-issue-a-level-3-or-lo-kalshi-kxtraveldowngrade-27jan01-ira |
| Edward Snowden | 6¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-trump-pardon-before-2027-edward-snowden-polymarket-0x07d4883660832eb7b64be2f4dba5870eb3ff4ae764e79893d6f574eaa075f7cf |
| Stephen Miran | 21¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-next-nominate-stephen-miran-as-member-o-kalshi-kxfedgovnom-27-smir |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 23 |
| 2026-05-25 | 23 |
| 2026-06-01 | 20 |
| 2026-06-08 | 13 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-03 · December 31, 2026 +13pp 22→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · December 31, 2026 +12pp 28→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-07 · June 30 −12pp 30→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · June 30 −11pp 41→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-06 · December 31 −7pp 16→9¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-declare-war-iran
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-declare-war-iran
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/iran

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.