# Trump declassifies new UFO files by...

> December 31 leads at 93%, runner-up 78% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files
Updated: 2026-05-08T14:05:21.545Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 93%
- Runner-up: May 31 at 78%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $35K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 93¢ | +10pp | $5K | polymarket | /markets/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-december-31-polymarket-0xca3e30a1e322eae4dc0e7e5550c8a83d7ce00e0a9a19b980d94fbed7bddaab5d |
| May 31 | 78¢ | +44pp | $31K | polymarket | /markets/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files-by-may-31-polymarket-0x62338d04d92d93d95477a49e4b5b2ca0708751bbd80f1d8299a416901121a356 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 77 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | 79 | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 77 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 80 | 27 |
| 2026-05-08 | 93 | 80 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · May 31 +44pp 36→80¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · December 31 +10pp 83→93¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · May 31 +8pp 27→35¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · May 31 +5pp 31→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · May 31 −4pp 35→31¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

Markets are currently pricing a 77% probability that Trump will declassify new UFO files by December 31, 2026, based primarily on Polymarket pricing. This reflects expectations that any such disclosure would occur within the next seven months. The probability is driven by Trump's stated interest in UFO transparency during his political career and recent executive actions on declassification, though no specific executive orders on UFO files have been announced in 2026 yet. The main countervailing factor is that UFO-related releases often involve inter-agency coordination and national security reviews that can extend timelines. The resolution hinges on whether Trump issues an explicit declassification directive targeting UFO materials, with the December 31 deadline creating a defined window for markets to settle. Related Kalshi contracts suggest elevated trading activity around Trump's executive actions generally (81% on May tariffs), indicating active monitoring of his recent policy moves.

### Key factors

- Trump has no publicly announced executive order specifically directing UFO file declassification as of May 2026
- Related markets show 84% probability for UFO release 'before 2027,' providing a broader timeframe context
- Declassification actions require coordination across multiple agencies (DoD, CIA, NSA), which historically delays timeline expectations
- The December 31 deadline represents approximately 244 days from market assessment date, a finite window for executive action
- Historical precedent shows Trump issued executive orders on declassification during his first term, establishing baseline likelihood for similar action

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-declassifies-new-ufo-files
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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