# Trump drops Powell investigation by…

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 25% across 3 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-drops-powell-investigation
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.415Z
Category: general · Topic: fed-rate
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 25% (liquidity-weighted across 3 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 17% / Polymarket 43% — 26pp spread
- 24h volume: $16

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 43¢ | ±0 | $10 | polymarket | /markets/jerome-powell-out-of-fed-board-by-december-31-polymarket-0xbb1e75fe2a97b994a0f1b20b8107330f575a752893b3c525439466d64f898463 |
| Jerome Powell | 3¢ | −2pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-jerome-powell-meet-before-jun-1-2-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26may-jpow |
| Jerome Powell | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-in-person-jerome-powell-bef-kalshi-kxtrumpmeeting-27jan01-njpow |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | 56 |
| 2026-05-02 | 21 |
| 2026-05-07 | 44 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · December 31 −11pp 48→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · December 31 +5pp 39→44¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-drops-powell-investigation
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-drops-powell-investigation
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/fed-rate

## License

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