# Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-impeached
Updated: 2026-06-18T05:20:21.689Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? | 6¢ | −1pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-be-impeached-by-end-of-2026-polymarket-0x4c8ceef9b9c0a27b6b4efa7c398ece4a5eeda76502f722de398c232abefe2ede |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-28 | 9 |
| 2026-06-03 | 7 |
| 2026-06-15 | 7 |
| 2026-06-18 | 6 |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability represents the market estimate that Donald Trump will face formal House impeachment charges before December 31, 2026. At 6%, traders are pricing in impeachment as unlikely but not impossible within the next six months. The current level reflects both the Republican-controlled House (which would initiate impeachment) and Trump's substantial political support within the party. Significant downward pressure would require sustained stability in Trump's political position and no major escalating scandals. Conversely, unexpected developments—whether criminal convictions, health crises, or major international incidents—could rapidly increase this probability. The outcome hinges largely on whether House Democrats gain leverage through new information or whether Trump's party remains sufficiently unified to prevent defections on such a consequential vote.

### Key factors

- Current House political composition and loyalty dynamics within the Republican caucus
- Trajectory of ongoing legal proceedings and potential conviction outcomes before end-2026
- Emergence of significant political scandals or major policy disputes between Trump and Congress
- Historical precedent: only two presidents impeached in U.S. history; none removed by Senate
- Timeline of major political events that could shift party calculus, including potential 2028 campaign dynamics

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-impeached
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-impeached
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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