# Trump out as President by June 30

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 18 contracts — refreshed 35 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-out-as-president-june-30
Updated: 2026-05-03T18:35:57.907Z
Category: politics · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 6% / Polymarket 16% — 10pp spread
- 24h volume: $173K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3¢ | −1pp | $40K | polymarket | /markets/republican-presidential-nominee-2028-donald-trump-polymarket-0x4a9d58d4da874e26708f5bdb014eb07a06aeebb927068d169d43831595386557 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 12¢ | +1pp | $24K | polymarket | /markets/putin-out-as-president-of-russia-by-december-31-20-polymarket-0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 14¢ | +1pp | $22K | polymarket | /markets/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722 |
| Before 2027 | 11¢ | +1pp | $18K | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-out-before-2027-before-2027-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-djt |
| Donald Trump | 3¢ | −1pp | $18K | polymarket | /markets/presidential-election-winner-2028-donald-trump-polymarket-0xce9a5fa30fe74e323b4a8f15afbb0b7a41a537aa880779ddf7dee22223b2f34a |
| June 30 | 18¢ | −3pp | $15K | polymarket | /markets/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-leader-of-cuba-by-june-30-polymarket-0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515 |
| June 30 | 5¢ | −1pp | $12K | polymarket | /markets/netanyahu-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x865303ccb9a48341d1bae33b3b4379ca86d5abbff3ce1e132716631cc0af3cce |
| June 30 | 31¢ | −1pp | $11K | polymarket | /markets/kash-patel-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0x79859c9e6645873e1568344b0b8ee54cc9eb02b90701cc5ba19c9a547ff313ce |
| June 30 | 41¢ | +2pp | $8K | polymarket | /markets/starmer-out-by-june-30-polymarket-0xbee2cd40473495f713c69b9dfbce9fc2837fa4011568222c83c83bb773e35053 |
| Donald J. Trump | 3¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-donald-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-dtru |
| June 30 | 5¢ | −1pp | $2K | polymarket | /markets/hamad-bin-isa-al-khalifa-out-as-leader-of-bahrain-polymarket-0x08b346f4580cbd59cc79416ab4fa00642b3737a04e822d85ef344dd7b0c4ee0a |
| June 30, 2026 | 3¢ | −1pp | $716 | polymarket | /markets/claudia-sheinbaum-out-as-president-of-mexico-by-ju-polymarket-0x5649a937907e0db6814f3fcbfa68e9f78a700d8c0e38ce652a572d97e205640d |
| Trump out as President | 52¢ | +1pp | $499 | polymarket | /markets/what-will-happen-before-gta-vi-trump-out-as-presid-polymarket-0x84f8b70331323c2fba97d7ceaa9a35fb645a0770d0dbff169d07f24f376766e9 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | 19¢ | +2pp | $310 | polymarket | /markets/miguel-daz-canel-out-as-president-of-cuba-by-june-polymarket-0x48874462b88af831a4d90479286c6c1d4cd683a6b119d926f85ac66549385b21 |
| June 30 | 12¢ | −1pp | $115 | polymarket | /markets/mahmoud-abbas-out-as-palestinian-president-by-june-polymarket-0x6a5a2f0dee907cdb831d2f697674cd6827ab0cafdab130615b8ec656b62ce51a |
| Daniel Noboa out as President of Ecuador by June 30? | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/daniel-noboa-out-as-president-of-ecuador-by-june-3-polymarket-0x6b2696a265decb06d8b9cd4c2316f8d19e20b0faaebdfbf89008d79443e42898 |
| Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-legislation-that-designates-june-14-the-birth-kalshi-kxbills-djtb |
| June 30, 2026 | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/aleksandar-vui-out-as-serbian-president-by-june-30-polymarket-0xf47e8cc490e9fd5f0ac8bd36aa4bc3b1abf12025dd145baac6cd95ee58e2d286 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |
| 2026-05-25 | 13 |
| 2026-06-01 | 10 |
| 2026-06-07 | 8 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-02 · June 30 +14pp 6→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-01 · June 30 −10pp 16→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · June 30 −9pp 20→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-05 · June 30 −7pp 11→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-03 · June 30, 2026 −6pp 10→4¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-out-as-president-june-30
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-out-as-president-june-30
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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