# Trump out as President before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 10% across 1 contract — refreshed 24 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-out-as-president
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:09.442Z
Category: politics · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 10% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $31K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? | 10¢ | ±0 | $31K | polymarket | /markets/trump-out-as-president-before-2027-polymarket-0x48b0b0bca515f68fccf95af4793dbd0edbfec1f8ec6e8df2c0f69ba74f8c4722 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 13 |
| 2026-05-25 | 11 |
| 2026-06-01 | 11 |
| 2026-06-07 | 11 |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects the current market expectation that President Trump will leave office before January 2027, representing roughly a 1-in-7 chance. At 14%, the market is pricing in scenarios where Trump either resigns, is removed through impeachment and conviction, or becomes unable to serve before the end of his current term. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Trump's current age and health status, and the political environment regarding potential legal or constitutional challenges to his presidency. The single largest uncertainty ahead involves any significant health events or major developments in ongoing legal matters that could materially change the baseline risk assessment. Election outcomes and political dynamics over the next 18 months will likely be the primary drivers of how this probability evolves from its current level.

### Key factors

- Trump is currently 79 years old; actuarial data and health status changes would be concrete inputs affecting removal-by-death probabilities
- Senate composition and political dynamics determine the theoretical viability of impeachment and conviction, which would require supermajority support among 100 senators
- Any formal impeachment proceedings or criminal conviction outcomes would represent clear catalysts that markets would incorporate immediately
- The current 14% probability implicitly prices in legal, health, and political removal scenarios combined—parsing these separately would require deeper market segmentation
- Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely leave office before completing their term absent death or resignation under acute pressure

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-out-as-president
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-out-as-president
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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