Will Trump publicly insult someone on...
Leader sits at 93% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
May 24
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
May 25
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$5K
modest
Closes
May 31, 2026
7 days
Venue
Polymarket
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Trump publicly insult someone on
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 24
0x8ecef5…e3ca
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 30
0x9e3d66…0b12
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 25
0x73172d…cdc7
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 28
0x754555…b09f
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 26
0x930cbe…6c1f
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 27
0x74b6a6…5276
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 31
0xfadb23…d2ca
Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 29
0xc12f33…d395
What moved the line
- May 22May 30↓9pp91→82¢ · Polymarket
- May 22May 24↓6pp90→84¢ · Polymarket
- May 23May 24↓3pp84→81¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in trump
- Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinetlast 95% · 0d
- How many times will Lawrence O'Donnell say Trump during next The Last Word With Lawrence O'Donnell35+ timeslast 3% · 1d
- Will Trump post on Truth Social between 4:00 AM and 4:59 AM ET this weeklast 33% · 1d
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBCyeslast 93% · 1d
- Will Trump endorse at least 3 people on Truth Social this weekAt least 20last 83% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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