# Trump renames ICE to NICE by...

> December 31 leads at 30%, runner-up 4% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 38 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-renames-ice-to-nice
Updated: 2026-05-28T19:20:09.584Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Leader: December 31 at 30%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 4%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $506

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 30¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trump-renames-ice-to-nice-by-december-31-polymarket-0x660e5732754d03a62f717db5dbcdd65fca9866311da5d185f19f8ffb4bfa7f0b |
| June 30 | 4¢ | +1pp | $506 | polymarket | /markets/trump-renames-ice-to-nice-by-june-30-polymarket-0x1ffe41da3681b949e203d16bf0fe8e095003ff52b1b65a34dc7bb7bca899fa22 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | 18 | 3 |
| 2026-05-27 | 26 | 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | 24 | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-27 · December 31 +4pp 22→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-26 · December 31 +3pp 19→22¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction asks whether President Trump will rename Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to NICE by December 31, 2026. The 17% probability reflects moderate skepticism about a formal agency rebranding occurring within seven months. Market pricing suggests traders view this as unlikely but plausible, with most uncertainty concentrated in the latter half of 2026 rather than the immediate near-term (only 3% by June 30). The main factors shaping this probability are the political feasibility of such a rebranding (which requires executive action and potential congressional coordination), Trump's stated positions on immigration enforcement policy, and whether such a name change aligns with his administration's broader priorities. The lack of recent public statements committing to this specific rebranding keeps the probability modest. Resolution hinges on whether an official announcement or executive order is signed before year-end 2026.

### Key factors

- Trump has not publicly proposed renaming ICE to NICE as of May 2026, limiting expectation that this is an imminent priority
- A formal agency rebranding requires executive action and possible legislative changes, creating procedural barriers beyond simple announcement
- The June 30 contract trades at only 3%, suggesting minimal market expectation of action in the immediate term versus later in the year
- Trading volume on the December 31 contract is currently zero, indicating low active interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads
- Whether Trump's immigration policy platform includes aesthetic rebranding versus substantive enforcement changes remains a key variable affecting outcome probability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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