# Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 2 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-restart-project-freedom
Updated: 2026-06-11T04:20:13.205Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical

## Headline

- Probability: 96% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $1.1M

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96¢ | +21pp | $1.1M | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-restart-project-freedom-by-june-30-polymarket-0xdfd4d487d004c266493bdf32551d7f018c7eb4b9325f42ac368dd5075eec36a9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | 15 |
| 2026-06-08 | 14 |
| 2026-06-09 | 12 |
| 2026-06-10 | 77 |
| 2026-06-11 | 98 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-10 · June 30 +65pp 12→77¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-11 · June 30 +21pp 77→98¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This prediction assesses the likelihood that former President Trump will restart Project Freedom, a proposed initiative related to government reform and restructuring. At 96% probability, the market reflects strong expectations this will occur. The high probability is likely driven by Trump's 2024 campaign platform, which heavily emphasized government efficiency reforms, and his stated intention to implement similar policies if returned to office. Key factors that could shift this probability include Trump's actual policy priorities in the near term, any formal announcements or executive actions regarding government restructuring, and statements from Trump's advisors about implementation timelines. The resolution will primarily depend on whether Trump takes concrete steps—such as executive orders, budget proposals, or structural reorganizations—that align with Project Freedom's stated goals. Any significant pivot away from these priorities or competing policy demands could reduce the probability.

### Key factors

- Trump's official statements or announcements explicitly naming or endorsing Project Freedom as a priority
- Issuance of executive orders or policy directives directly related to government restructuring components
- Timeline for implementation—whether Trump allocates resources and personnel to such an initiative within his first year
- Competing policy priorities that could delay or supersede government reform efforts
- Congressional or legal obstacles that might prevent or materially alter the scope of any such program

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-restart-project-freedom
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-restart-project-freedom
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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