# Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by...

> December 31, 2026 leads at 64%, runner-up 39% across 2 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-suspends-us-entry-for-more-countries
Updated: 2026-05-03T22:05:55.615Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: December 31, 2026 at 64%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 39%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 64¢ | −14pp | $12 | polymarket | /markets/trump-suspends-us-entry-for-more-countries-by-dece-polymarket-0x5cd420bc92ac455342c51c1c78f07d8e3de7eeed4ca2ade2759e5eae763f3d5f |
| June 30 | 39¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/trump-suspends-us-entry-for-more-countries-by-june-polymarket-0xeabc30243adc43df3a0608ca3c2a073686f0d76e810f13e5604d34610e43c234 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | December 31, 2026 | June 30 |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 72 | 49 |
| 2026-04-19 | 75 | 17 |
| 2026-04-26 | 72 | 45 |
| 2026-05-03 | 44 | 45 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · December 31, 2026 −14pp 58→44¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · December 31, 2026 −8pp 63→55¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · December 31, 2026 −7pp 70→63¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · December 31, 2026 +7pp 55→62¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-28 · June 30 +6pp 43→49¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 46% chance that Trump will suspend U.S. entry for additional countries by a specified deadline. The probability reflects trader assessments of whether such an executive action will occur, compared to a 39% probability it will not. Factors driving the current level include Trump's historical use of travel restrictions as a policy tool and the current geopolitical environment. Movement would depend on administration rhetoric, pending legislation, or international incidents that might trigger new restrictions. The main catalyst for resolution is the deadline itself, when the outcome becomes determinable based on official U.S. policy announcements and executive orders issued during the relevant timeframe.

### Key factors

- Historical precedent: Trump issued multiple travel restrictions during his previous presidency, establishing a pattern that traders may extrapolate into 2026
- Current administration messaging: Public statements or policy documents from Trump or officials explicitly discussing entry suspensions for specific countries would move probabilities
- Geopolitical events: Regional conflicts, security incidents, or diplomatic crises could create conditions triggering new restrictions before the deadline
- Executive action pace: The rate at which the administration implements immigration and entry policies early in 2026 signals likelihood of additional suspensions
- Contractual deadline specificity: The exact end-date of this contract determines whether ongoing restrictions initiated near the deadline count toward resolution

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-suspends-us-entry-for-more-countries
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trump-suspends-us-entry-for-more-countries
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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