# Will Trump visit Pakistan by...

> Closed. Last odds frozen 9 h ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trump-visit-pakistan
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-06-30

## Headline

- Probability: 4% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $26

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4¢ | +1pp | $26 | polymarket | /markets/will-trump-visit-pakistan-by-june-30-polymarket-0xc1f43db60906fb03f0db0283a1841bd77d9e0efb12e203b7949e620505821077 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 45 |
| 2026-06-05 | 3 |
| 2026-06-12 | 11 |
| 2026-06-17 | 5 |

_20 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-12 · June 30 −5pp 16→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-16 · June 30 −4pp 8→4¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · June 30 −3pp 11→8¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract asks whether former President Trump will visit Pakistan within the next week, currently priced at 5% probability. The low likelihood reflects the short timeframe and lack of announced diplomatic plans, as Trump would need to arrange travel, security, and official engagements within days. The probability could increase if there were sudden diplomatic developments, urgent negotiations, or public announcements of such a visit. The May 31 deadline creates a concrete resolution point, with the contract expiring in one week. Any official announcement from Trump's team or Pakistani government would be the primary catalyst to shift probabilities significantly, as would scheduling of major bilateral meetings or summits.

### Key factors

- No public announcement of a Pakistan visit has been made as of late May 2026
- The seven-day window requires immediate logistical coordination for presidential-level international travel and security protocols
- Trump's recent public schedule and announced commitments for the next week would need to accommodate such a visit
- Diplomatic relations between the US and Pakistan and any urgent bilateral issues requiring high-level engagement would motivate such a trip
- Historical frequency of unscheduled presidential visits to Pakistan suggests such trips are rare and typically planned well in advance

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

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