# Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpadminleave
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:20:51.594Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $21K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kash Patel | 69¢ | −2pp | $10K | kalshi | /markets/will-kash-patel-leaves-director-of-the-fbi-in-befo-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-kpat |
| Karoline Leavitt | 40¢ | −3pp | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-karoline-leavitt-leaves-white-house-press-sec-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-klea |
| Pete Hegseth | 43¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-pete-hegseth-leaves-secretary-of-defense-in-b-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-pheg |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 59¢ | −2pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-tulsi-gabbard-leaves-director-of-national-int-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-tgab |
| Lee Zeldin | 49¢ | ±0 | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-lee-zeldin-leaves-epa-administrator-in-before-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-lzel |
| Howard Lutnick | 49¢ | −1pp | $767 | kalshi | /markets/will-howard-lutnick-leaves-secretary-of-commerce-i-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-hlut |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 33¢ | ±0 | $333 | kalshi | /markets/will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-leaves-hhs-secretary-in-b-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-rfk |
| Susie Wiles | 31¢ | −6pp | $221 | kalshi | /markets/will-susie-wiles-leaves-chief-of-staff-in-before-2-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-swil |
| Mehmet Oz | 20¢ | −1pp | $219 | kalshi | /markets/will-mehmet-oz-leaves-cms-administrator-in-before-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-moz |
| Mike Huckabee | 29¢ | −2pp | $130 | kalshi | /markets/will-mike-huckabee-leaves-ambassador-to-israel-in-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-mhuc |
| Marco Rubio | 19¢ | −1pp | $120 | kalshi | /markets/will-marco-rubio-leaves-secretary-of-state-in-befo-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-mrub |
| Todd Blanche | 54¢ | +1pp | $61 | kalshi | /markets/will-todd-blanche-leaves-deputy-attorney-general-i-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-tbla |
| Steve Witkoff | 20¢ | ±0 | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-steve-witkoff-leaves-special-envoy-to-the-mid-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-swit |
| Amy Gleason | 55¢ | ±0 | $55 | kalshi | /markets/will-amy-gleason-leaves-acting-administrator-of-th-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-agle |
| Stephen Miller | 22¢ | ±0 | $43 | kalshi | /markets/will-stephen-miller-leaves-deputy-chief-of-staff-i-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-smil |
| Tom Homan | 23¢ | ±0 | $39 | kalshi | /markets/will-tom-homan-leaves-white-house-border-czar-in-b-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-thom |
| Sean Duffy | 21¢ | −1pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-sean-duffy-leaves-secretary-of-transportation-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-sduf |
| John Ratcliffe | 21¢ | ±0 | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-john-ratcliffe-leaves-director-of-the-cia-in-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-jrat |
| Scott Bessent | 19¢ | −1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-scott-bessent-leaves-secretary-of-the-treasur-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-sbes |
| Brooke Rollins | 18¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-brooke-rollins-leaves-secretary-of-agricultur-kalshi-kxtrumpadminleave-26dec31-brol |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-08 | 39 |
| 2026-04-19 | 39 |
| 2026-04-26 | 38 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 |

_26 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-29 · Mike Huckabee +10pp 29→39¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Susie Wiles −6pp 38→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-04-27 · Todd Blanche +6pp 48→54¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Karoline Leavitt −5pp 48→43¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · Steve Witkoff −5pp 25→20¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 26% probability that Todd Blanche leaves his position as Deputy Attorney General before the end of 2026. Blanche was confirmed as DAG in early 2025 under the Trump administration. The relatively low probability suggests markets view his departure as unlikely this year, though related uncertainty around other DOJ personnel—particularly FBI Director Kash Patel's potential exit—may influence perceptions of broader DOJ stability. Movement in this market would likely correlate with changes in Trump administration policy priorities, confirmation battles, or significant personnel shifts elsewhere in the department. The market reflects baseline expectation that cabinet-level positions typically see limited turnover within their first year, though political transitions can accelerate unexpected departures.

### Key factors

- Blanche's confirmation status and time served: He was confirmed as DAG in early 2025, suggesting typical tenure expectations before natural exit points like 2028
- Correlation with other DOJ departures: Related markets show elevated departure probabilities for Kash Patel (69% before 2027), which could indicate broader DOJ instability concerns
- Historical cabinet turnover rates: DAG positions typically experience low first-year departure rates absent major scandals or policy shifts
- Market activity concentration: High volume on related FBI director contracts suggests the 26% may be influenced by adjacent uncertainty rather than Blanche-specific factors
- Trump administration tenure patterns: Historical precedent from previous Trump term showed varied cabinet stability, with some early exits and others serving full terms

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpadminleave
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpadminleave

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.