# How many Attorneys General will Trump have

> 3 leads at 34%, runner-up 30% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpagcount
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.685Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-01-20

## Headline

- Leader: 3 at 34%
- Runner-up: 2 at 30%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 34¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-attorneys-general-will-trump-have-3-kalshi-kxtrumpagcount-29-3 |
| 2 | 30¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-attorneys-general-will-trump-have-2-kalshi-kxtrumpagcount-29-2 |
| 4 | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-attorneys-general-will-trump-have-4-kalshi-kxtrumpagcount-29-4 |
| 5 | 10¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-many-attorneys-general-will-trump-have-5-kalshi-kxtrumpagcount-29-5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 3 | 2 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 53 | 26 | — |
| 2026-04-23 | — | — | 11 |
| 2026-04-24 | — | — | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 43 | 25 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 37 | 29 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | — | 29 | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 34 | 29 | — |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · 3 −3pp 37→34¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market confidence that Trump will have served exactly 3 distinct Attorneys General by a specified date in 2026. The current 37% reflects a relatively uncertain outcome, with a 29% probability for an alternative count. The outcome depends primarily on whether the current AG remains in post or faces replacement due to resignation, firing, or internal administration changes. The key uncertainty centers on personnel stability within the administration and whether any major legal or political events trigger an AG transition. The resolution date and exact definitions of "distinct" AGs in the contract terms will directly determine the outcome, making precise timing of any potential departure critical to the final count.

### Key factors

- Current AG tenure length and stated administration plans regarding the position
- Whether resignation, forced departure, or scheduled departure occurs before contract resolution date
- Number of AGs already serving under Trump since January 2025 and historical appointment patterns
- Contract resolution date specificity and definition of what constitutes a distinct AG for counting purposes
- Any announced leadership changes or public statements from Trump regarding AG continuity or transition plans

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpagcount
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpagcount
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.