# Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub

> Below 38% leads at 70%, runner-up 48% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpapprovalbelow
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:51.144Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-07

## Headline

- Leader: Below 38% at 70%
- Runner-up: Below 37% at 48%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5K

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 38% | 70¢ | −4pp | $169 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trumps-approval-rating-on-approval-rat-kalshi-kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31-38 |
| Below 37% | 48¢ | −8pp | $727 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trumps-approval-rating-on-approval-rat-kalshi-kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31-37 |
| Below 36% | 34¢ | −1pp | $382 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trumps-approval-rating-on-approval-rat-kalshi-kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31-36 |
| Below 35% | 25¢ | −1pp | $746 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trumps-approval-rating-on-approval-rat-kalshi-kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31-35 |
| Below 34% | 18¢ | −1pp | $756 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trumps-approval-rating-on-approval-rat-kalshi-kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31-34 |
| Below 33% | 14¢ | −1pp | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trumps-approval-rating-on-approval-rat-kalshi-kxtrumpapprovalbelow-26dec31-33 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Below 38% | Below 37% | Below 36% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 83 | — | — |
| 2026-05-28 | — | 69 | — |
| 2026-05-30 | — | 68 | 59 |
| 2026-06-11 | 78 | — | 55 |
| 2026-06-12 | — | — | 54 |
| 2026-06-15 | 74 | 65 | 48 |
| 2026-06-19 | 70 | 60 | 40 |
| 2026-06-24 | 70 | 52 | 37 |
| 2026-06-25 | 66 | — | 36 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Below 37% −8pp 60→52¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Below 38% −4pp 74→70¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · Below 38% −4pp 70→66¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Below 35% −3pp 27→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-24 · Below 36% −3pp 40→37¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are currently pricing an 83% likelihood that Trump's approval rating will fall below 38% at some point between December 2025 and December 2026, based on VoteHub polling data. This high probability reflects recent approval trends and assumes continued political volatility over the next year. The current level is driven by recent polling showing approval in the mid-to-high 30s range, with markets pricing in the possibility of further decline given ongoing policy debates and economic conditions. The key uncertainty is whether approval will stabilize above 38% or drift lower. Resolution depends on VoteHub's tracking data through end-of-year 2026, with major economic reports, legislative outcomes, and political events throughout 2026 serving as primary catalysts that could shift approval meaningfully in either direction.

### Key factors

- VoteHub's current Trump approval reading and recent polling trend direction—whether recent weeks show stability or continued movement below 38%
- Economic data releases and GDP growth rates throughout 2026, which historically correlate strongly with presidential approval ratings
- Major legislative outcomes or executive actions in the first half of 2026 that could shift public opinion measurably
- The tightness of the 35%, 33%, and 38% outcome bands on Kalshi suggests markets see approval clustering in the mid-30s range rather than a clear directional consensus
- The 20¢ price on 'approval above 40%' for May 2026 indicates markets assign only 20% probability to approval rebounding above that level within weeks

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpapprovalbelow
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpapprovalbelow
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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