# Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027

> France leads at 93%, runner-up 36% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 30 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpcountries
Updated: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.045Z
Category: geopolitics · Topic: china
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: France at 93%
- Runner-up: Japan at 36%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | 93¢ | ±0 | $968 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-france-before-jan-1-2027-f-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-fra |
| Japan | 36¢ | −2pp | $32 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-japan-before-jan-1-2027-ja-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-jap |
| Saudi Arabia | 35¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-saudi-arabia-before-jan-1-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-sa |
| Germany | 32¢ | ±0 | $49 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-germany-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-ger |
| Israel | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-israel-before-jan-1-2027-i-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-isr |
| Canada | 28¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-canada-before-jan-1-2027-c-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-can |
| India | 25¢ | −1pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-india-before-jan-1-2027-in-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-ind |
| Italy | 24¢ | −1pp | $19 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-italy-before-jan-1-2027-it-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-ita |
| Pakistan | 24¢ | +3pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-pakistan-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-paki |
| Poland | 23¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-poland-before-jan-1-2027-p-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-pol |
| Qatar | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-qatar-before-jan-1-2027-qa-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-qat |
| Mexico | 17¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-mexico-before-jan-1-2027-m-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-mex |
| Cuba | 16¢ | −2pp | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-cuba-before-jan-1-2027-cub-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-cub |
| Russia | 13¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-russia-before-jan-1-2027-r-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-rus |
| Hungary | 10¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-hungary-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-hun |
| Denmark | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-denmark-incl-greenland-bef-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-den |
| North Korea | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-north-korea-before-jan-1-2-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-nk |
| Ukraine | 7¢ | −4pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-ukraine-before-jan-1-2027-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-ukr |
| Taiwan | 5¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-visit-taiwan-before-jan-1-2027-t-kalshi-kxtrumpcountries-27jan01-tai |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | France | Japan | Saudi Arabia |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | — | 50 | 40 |
| 2026-05-10 | 89 | 51 | — |
| 2026-05-24 | 94 | 38 | 38 |
| 2026-05-25 | 94 | 35 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | 91 | 39 | 37 |
| 2026-06-01 | 90 | — | — |
| 2026-06-06 | — | 38 | 36 |
| 2026-06-07 | — | 36 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 95 | — | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-06 · Germany −5pp 37→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Ukraine −4pp 11→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-03 · Japan −3pp 41→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · Pakistan +3pp 21→24¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-05 · Israel −3pp 35→32¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the odds that Donald Trump will visit Taiwan before January 1, 2027. The high 93% price reflects market expectations that Trump will make this trip during his presidency, likely as part of a broader Asia-Pacific engagement strategy. Key factors driving this level include the political significance of Taiwan, ongoing US-China relations, and Trump's stated foreign policy priorities. Downward pressure would come from diplomatic complications or scheduling constraints. The main catalyst for resolution is Trump's public schedule and announcements regarding international travel, with any scheduled Asia trip significantly affecting these odds. The recent China-related contracts trading at 90% suggest traders view a Taiwan visit as likely if Trump travels to the region.

### Key factors

- Trump's stated commitment to Asia-Pacific engagement and Taiwan relations during his 2024-2025 statements
- Current geopolitical tensions between US and China, which could either accelerate or complicate a Taiwan visit
- No publicly announced Taiwan trip on Trump's official schedule as of early May 2026, suggesting this is a probabilistic expectation rather than confirmed
- Historical precedent: sitting US presidents rarely visit Taiwan directly due to diplomatic sensitivities, though this has shifted under Trump's prior administration
- The significant gap between Taiwan-specific odds (93%) and China visit odds (90%) indicates market confidence in a Taiwan stop if Trump travels to Asia

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpcountries
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpcountries
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/china

## License

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