# Will Donald Trump Jr. attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 18% across 12 contracts — refreshed 31 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpcryptoconf
Updated: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.922Z
Category: crypto · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2029-11-07

## Headline

- Probability: 18% (liquidity-weighted across 12 contracts)
- Cross-venue: Kalshi 21% / Polymarket 5% — 16pp spread
- 24h volume: $9K

## Bound contracts (12)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before August 1, 2026 | 3¢ | ±0 | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-august-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-26aug01 |
| Yes | 81¢ | +1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-attend-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-kalshi-kxtrumpattend |
| Before January 20, 2029 | 34¢ | +1pp | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-leave-office-before-january-20-2-kalshi-kxtrumpout27-27-jan2029 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 3¢ | −1pp | $969 | polymarket | /markets/republican-presidential-nominee-2028-donald-trump-polymarket-0x4a9d58d4da874e26708f5bdb014eb07a06aeebb927068d169d43831595386557 |
| Donald J. Trump | 3¢ | +1pp | $770 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-be-the-nominee-for-the-preside-kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-djt |
| Donald J. Trump | 3¢ | −1pp | $509 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-next-presidential-election-donald-kalshi-kxpresperson-28-dtru |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 5¢ | ±0 | $112 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-jr-be-the-nominee-for-the-pres-kalshi-kxpresnomr-28-djtjr |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 22¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-run-for-the-republican-presidential-nomin-kalshi-kx2028rrun-28-djtjr |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-j-trump-jr-be-the-nominee-for-the-vice-kalshi-kxvpresnomr-28-djtjr |
| Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-jr-and-marco-rubio-be-the-2028-r-kalshi-kxrticket-28nov07-dtjrmrub |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 7¢ | −6pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/who-will-announce-presidential-run-before-2027-don-polymarket-0xf618b0b624851cbb63105866d3b5f810d510d45dd2c8170a283aa24d00b2877a |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-jr-receive-a-presidential-pardon-kalshi-kxtrumppardons-29jan21-djtr |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | 26 |
| 2026-05-25 | 29 |
| 2026-06-01 | 34 |
| 2026-06-08 | 80 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpcryptoconf
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpcryptoconf
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.