# Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 25

> At least 3 leads at 94%, runner-up 84% across 6 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpdelete
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.025Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least 3 at 94%
- Runner-up: At least 5 at 84%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least 3 | 94¢ | −7pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-truths-deleted-in-may-202-kalshi-kxtrumpdelete-26may-a3 |
| At least 5 | 84¢ | −5pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-truths-deleted-in-may-202-kalshi-kxtrumpdelete-26may-a5 |
| At least 10 | 55¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-truths-deleted-in-may-202-kalshi-kxtrumpdelete-26may-a10 |
| At least 15 | 20¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-truths-deleted-in-may-202-kalshi-kxtrumpdelete-26may-a15 |
| At least 20 | 9¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-truths-deleted-in-may-202-kalshi-kxtrumpdelete-26may-a20 |
| At least 25 | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-truths-deleted-in-may-202-kalshi-kxtrumpdelete-26may-a25 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least 3 | At least 5 | At least 10 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 94 | 89 | 68 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 87 | 66 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | — | 65 |
| 2026-05-06 | — | — | 57 |
| 2026-05-07 | 87 | 82 | 54 |

_5 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · At least 10 −8pp 65→57¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · At least 3 −7pp 94→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · At least 5 −5pp 87→82¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · At least 15 −4pp 24→20¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-07 · At least 10 −3pp 57→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 97% probability that Donald Trump will delete at least 25 Truth Social posts during May 2026. The high confidence reflects Trump's established posting pattern on the platform; related contracts show he posted 80–99 times in late April, suggesting consistent activity. The probability could shift based on whether Trump maintains his current deletion rate—a behavioral metric tied to content moderation preferences or strategic account management. Resolution depends on Truth Social's public deletion records becoming available after May concludes, typically within days of month-end. Key uncertainties include whether deletions correlate with specific events (posts attracting criticism or legal concerns) or represent routine maintenance, and whether platform access or policy changes would disrupt the baseline pattern.

### Key factors

- Trump posted 80–99 times in the week of April 26, 2026 (97¢ contract), establishing recent daily volume baseline
- Historical Truth Social deletion rate: analysts must establish what percentage of Trump's posts are typically removed post-publication
- Deletion behavior is discretionary and context-dependent; no public announcement typically precedes removal decisions
- May 31, 2026 is the hard resolution date; Truth Social must publish final deletion counts or third-party monitors must verify the tally
- Runner-up contract at 93% suggests modest disagreement on whether 25 is the precise threshold, indicating marginal uncertainty near the boundary

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpdelete
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpdelete
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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