# 0

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 8% across 10 contracts — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpendorseloss
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:44.560Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-09-16

## Headline

- Probability: 8% (liquidity-weighted across 10 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $455

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 13¢ | +1pp | $201 | kalshi | /markets/will-2-trump-endorsed-candidates-lose-their-primar-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t2 |
| 7 | 7¢ | — | $181 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-who-l-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t7 |
| 5 | 7¢ | −1pp | $72 | kalshi | /markets/will-5-trump-endorsed-candidates-lose-their-primar-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t5 |
| 3 | 13¢ | +6pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-3-trump-endorsed-candidates-lose-their-primar-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t3 |
| 1 | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-1-trump-endorsed-candidates-lose-their-primar-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t1 |
| 4 | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-4-trump-endorsed-candidates-lose-their-primar-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t4 |
| 6 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-who-l-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t6 |
| 8 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-who-l-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t8 |
| 9 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-who-l-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t9 |
| 10 | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-number-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-who-l-kalshi-kxtrumpendorseloss-26sep16-t10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | 6 |
| 2026-04-26 | 7 |
| 2026-04-29 | 7 |
| 2026-05-09 | 11 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · 3 +6pp 9→15¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · 2 +3pp 9→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-08 · 1 +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability estimates the likelihood that at least two Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primary elections. As of May 2026, markets assign this outcome a 7% probability, reflecting expectations that most Trump-backed candidates will successfully win their primaries. The current level suggests high confidence in Trump-endorsed candidates' primary success, though factors like candidate quality, local political dynamics, and voter enthusiasm variations could shift this estimate. Primary elections occurring throughout 2026 will determine the final outcome. The main catalyst resolving uncertainty is the completion of all primary contests, where results will show exactly how many endorsed candidates either advance or are eliminated by voters. Factors that could increase this probability include stronger-than-expected opposition candidates, regional dissatisfaction with specific endorsements, or lower turnout among Trump supporters in particular races. Conversely, unified party support would decrease the probability further.

### Key factors

- Timing and concentration of primaries across 2026 — earlier contests may indicate patterns affecting later races
- Quality and viability of primary challengers to Trump-endorsed candidates — competitive races increase elimination risk
- Trump supporter turnout levels relative to opposition candidates — higher turnout typically favors endorsed candidates
- Regional variation in Trump endorsement reception — some districts or states may show weaker support for specific endorsees
- Candidate incumbency status — incumbents face different primary dynamics than open-seat candidates

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpendorseloss
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpendorseloss

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.