# Will Donald Trump endorse Russell Fry in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11, 2026

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpendorsesc
Updated: 2026-07-31T13:20:52.551Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-08-11

## Headline

- Probability: 95% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Graham | 95¢ | −1pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-endorse-darline-graham-nordone-i-kalshi-kxtrumpendorsesc-26aug11-dnor |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | 86 |
| 2026-07-19 | 75 |
| 2026-07-26 | 92 |
| 2026-07-30 | 92 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Markets are pricing a 96% probability that Donald Trump will endorse Darline Graham Nordone—not Russell Fry—in South Carolina's 2026 Senate race by August 11, 2026. This reflects current expectations about Trump's endorsement choice in a competitive Republican primary. The high probability suggests either a strong signal from Trump's team, existing public statements, or betting participants' assessments of Trump's preferences among the candidates. Key drivers include recent statements from Trump or his advisors, candidate relationships with the Trump camp, polling data affecting viability perceptions, and fundraising dynamics. The resolution date of August 11 provides a firm deadline; any formal endorsement announcement before then—or lack thereof—will settle the market. Significant shifts would likely follow direct Trump comments, major candidate events, or shifts in candidate momentum.

### Key factors

- Trump's explicit public statements or advisor signals about preferred South Carolina Senate candidates
- Darline Graham Nordone's current political standing, name recognition, and perceived alignment with Trump's endorsement strategy
- Russell Fry's profile and any prior relationship or distance from Trump
- Whether Trump has already committed to an endorsement timeline or remains undecided as of late July 2026
- Campaign momentum, polling data, and fundraising among candidates competing in the Republican primary

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpendorsesc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpendorsesc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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