# Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027

> 0 leads at 64%, runner-up 15% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpfire
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:43.793Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: 0 at 64%
- Runner-up: 2 at 15%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $67

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 64¢ | +2pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-fire-0-cabinet-members-before-2027-0-kalshi-kxtrumpfire-27-0 |
| 2 | 15¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-fire-2-cabinet-members-before-2027-2-kalshi-kxtrumpfire-27-2 |
| 3 | 9¢ | −3pp | $65 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-fire-3-cabinet-members-before-2027-3-kalshi-kxtrumpfire-27-3 |
| 1 | 6¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-fire-1-cabinet-members-before-2027-1-kalshi-kxtrumpfire-27-1 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0 | 2 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 59 | 10 | 11 |
| 2026-04-24 | 56 | 13 | 13 |
| 2026-04-25 | 58 | — | 10 |
| 2026-05-01 | 62 | 15 | 12 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 18 | 9 |
| 2026-05-07 | 64 | 15 | — |

_24 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · 1 −9pp 14→5¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · 1 +4pp 3→7¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-06 · 1 +4pp 10→14¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · 3 −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-02 · 2 +3pp 15→18¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 62% chance that Donald Trump will not remove any Cabinet members between now and January 1, 2027. Cabinet turnover reflects both policy disagreements and management style; Trump's first term saw significant personnel changes, while current stability depends on alignment with his administration and retention of key officials. The probability reflects market expectation of relative stability through year-end, though unforeseen policy conflicts or performance issues could trigger departures. The main catalyst will be observable Cabinet departures as they occur, with the contract resolving definitively on December 31, 2026 based on actual resignations, dismissals, or reassignments to Cabinet-level positions.

### Key factors

- Baseline Cabinet turnover rate during Trump's first term (2017-2021) saw approximately 9 Cabinet members depart over four years, suggesting historical precedent for personnel changes
- Current Cabinet members' public statements and loyalty signals to Trump's stated priorities will indicate stability; any public disagreements foreshadow potential departures
- Scheduled high-stakes policy decisions or legislative battles between May 2026 and December 2026 could strain Cabinet relationships and trigger exits
- Market is pricing in Trump's demonstrated preference for loyalty-based retention, which may support lower turnover than typical administrations
- Definition of 'Cabinet member' firing vs. voluntary resignation vs. reassignment to non-Cabinet roles will be critical to resolution clarity

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpfire
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpfire
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.