# Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom meet before May 1, 2026

> Mark Carney leads at 92%, runner-up 89% across 18 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 47 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpmeet
Updated: 2026-06-13T16:20:49.171Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-01

## Headline

- Leader: Mark Carney at 92%
- Runner-up: Keir Starmer at 89%
- Outcomes: 18 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $3K

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Carney | 92¢ | +6pp | $645 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-mark-carney-meet-before-jul-1-202-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-mcar |
| Keir Starmer | 89¢ | +6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-keir-starmer-meet-before-jul-1-20-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-ksta |
| Narendra Modi | 83¢ | +2pp | $428 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-narendra-modi-meet-before-jul-1-2-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-nmod |
| Jensen Huang | 78¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-jensen-huang-meet-before-jul-1-20-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-jhua |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 74¢ | +2pp | $792 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-volodymyr-zelenskyy-meet-before-j-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-vzel |
| John Thune | 72¢ | +35pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-john-thune-meet-before-jul-1-2026-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-jthu |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 65¢ | −1pp | $13 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-recep-tayyip-erdoan-meet-before-j-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-rerd |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 31¢ | −20pp | $474 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-mohammed-bin-salman-meet-before-j-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-mbs |
| Vladimir Putin | 29¢ | −1pp | $356 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-vladimir-putin-meet-before-jul-1-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-vput |
| Zohran Mamdani | 27¢ | −2pp | $40 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-zohran-mamdani-meet-before-jul-1-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-zmam |
| Xi Jinping | 20¢ | +1pp | $76 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-xi-jinping-meet-before-jul-1-2026-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-xjin |
| Ron DeSantis | 11¢ | +1pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-ron-desantis-meet-before-jul-1-20-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-rdes |
| María Corina Machado | 11¢ | +4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-mara-corina-machado-meet-before-j-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-mcm |
| Chuck Schumer | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-chuck-schumer-meet-before-jul-1-2-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-csch |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 5¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-hakeem-jeffries-meet-before-jul-1-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-hjef |
| Delcy Rodriguez | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-delcy-rodriguez-meet-before-jul-1-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-drod |
| Reza Pahlavi | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-reza-pahlavi-meet-before-jul-1-20-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-rpah |
| Lai Ching-te | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/donald-trump-and-lai-ching-te-meet-before-jul-1-20-kalshi-kxtrumpmeet-26jun-lchi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mark Carney | Keir Starmer | Narendra Modi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | 62 | 65 | 34 |
| 2026-06-05 | — | — | 80 |
| 2026-06-07 | 85 | 86 | 78 |
| 2026-06-11 | 85 | 87 | 79 |
| 2026-06-12 | 91 | 93 | — |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-11 · John Thune +35pp 37→72¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-08 · John Thune −34pp 71→37¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-09 · Zohran Mamdani −33pp 68→35¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-13 · Mohammed bin Salman −20pp 60→40¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-06 · Zohran Mamdani +20pp 46→66¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpmeet
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpmeet
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.