# Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kevin Warsh in Sep 2026

> Catherine Connolly leads at 92%, runner-up 87% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpmeetm
Updated: 2026-09-07T11:20:54.268Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-01

## Headline

- Leader: Catherine Connolly at 92%
- Runner-up: Greg Abbott at 87%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catherine Connolly | 92¢ | +31pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-cathe-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-ccon |
| Greg Abbott | 87¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-greg-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-gabb |
| John Thune | 85¢ | −26pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-john-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-jthu |
| Peng Liyuan | 85¢ | −38pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-peng-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-pli |
| António Guterres | 80¢ | +14pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-antni-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-agut |
| Vladimir Putin | 78¢ | +6pp | $821 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-vladi-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-vput |
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 78¢ | +7pp | $766 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-volod-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-vzel |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 76¢ | −28pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-benja-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-bnet |
| Rory McIlroy | 74¢ | +1pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-rory-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-rmci |
| Emmanuel Macron | 72¢ | −2pp | $24 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-emman-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-emac |
| Recep Tayyip Erdoğan | 63¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-recep-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-rerd |
| Mohammed bin Salman | 62¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-moham-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-mbs |
| Mark Carney | 60¢ | −2pp | $173 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-mark-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-mcar |
| Ahmed al-Sharaa | 53¢ | ±0 | $40 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-ahmed-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-aals |
| Delcy Rodríguez | 39¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-delcy-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-drod |
| Elon Musk | 31¢ | +6pp | $12 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-elon-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-emus |
| Kevin Warsh | 31¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-kevin-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-kwar |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 13¢ | −5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-hakee-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-hjef |
| Chuck Schumer | 7¢ | −13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-chuck-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-csch |
| Kim Jong Un | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-donald-trump-meet-including-phone-calls-kim-j-kalshi-kxtrumpmeetm-26oct01-kjon |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Catherine Connolly | Greg Abbott | John Thune |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | 79 | 66 | 39 |
| 2026-09-02 | 52 | 79 | 71 |
| 2026-09-03 | 61 | 85 | 45 |
| 2026-09-04 | — | 88 | — |
| 2026-09-05 | — | 87 | — |
| 2026-09-06 | 92 | — | — |

_6 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-03 · Peng Liyuan −38pp 74→36¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-02 · Kevin Warsh −33pp 58→25¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-02 · John Thune +32pp 39→71¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-06 · Catherine Connolly +31pp 61→92¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-02 · Peng Liyuan +29pp 45→74¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 94% likelihood that Donald Trump will meet or speak with Kevin Warsh at any point during September 2026. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and Trump adviser, has maintained periodic contact with Trump circles. The high probability reflects their established relationship and Trump's history of consulting financial or policy advisers, though the outcome depends on whether any documented interaction occurs during the specific month. The estimate would shift downward if Trump's schedule becomes fully public with no Warsh contact, or upward if they're known to communicate regularly. Resolution occurs when September ends, at which point any meeting, call, or documented communication becomes verifiable or confirmed absent.

### Key factors

- Warsh's role in Trump's previous administration and ongoing relationship with his inner circle
- Whether Trump's calendar and communications during September are publicly documented or confirmed
- The frequency of Warsh's documented interactions with Trump in preceding months (August 2026 and earlier)
- Scheduled financial, policy, or advisory meetings Trump participates in that Warsh might attend or call into
- Any public announcements by Trump's team regarding meetings with former or current advisers in September

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/trumpmeetm
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=trumpmeetm
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

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